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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 114.33m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 114.33m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 135 million 77 12.56%
 
135.0 - 139.9 million 95 15.50%
 
140.0 - 144.9 million 81 13.21%
 
145.0 - 149.9 million 75 12.23%
 
150.0 - 154.9 million 88 14.36%
 
155.0 - 159.9 million 78 12.72%
 
160.0 - 164.9 million 54 8.81%
 
165.0 - 169.9 million 12 1.96%
 
170.0 - 175.0 million 7 1.14%
 
More than 175 million 46 7.50%
 
Total:613
BonfiresDown on 15 November 2022

I rarely see such a uniform poll curve as this one. So basically none of us have any idea exactly how much it will sell. Which makes sense since there are still a lot of unknowns about how and when the successor will be introduced.



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znake on 15 November 2022

165 million by Spring 2025



Farsala on 16 November 2022

I wouldn't be so confident that 135m is outside of the realm of possibility. Certainly i think less than 150m is the most realistic option, but that doesn't mean I think 135m is more impossible than 165m.



Farsala on 16 November 2022
Kakadu18 said:

Who thinks it's gonna end up below 135mil?
I'd like to hear some arguments.

I would like to hear the same for 160m plus. Always interesting to me.



Pinkie_pie on 16 November 2022
Farsala said:
Kakadu18 said:

Who thinks it's gonna end up below 135mil?
I'd like to hear some arguments.

I would like to hear the same for 160m plus. Always interesting to me.

In the ps5 voting, there's a below 70mil in the poll which is impossible and I didn't hear any arguments about it



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Doctor_MG on 16 November 2022
Farsala said:

I wouldn't be so confident that 135m is outside of the realm of possibility. Certainly i think less than 150m is the most realistic option, but that doesn't mean I think 135m is more impossible than 165m.

I just don't see how it would be possible. Switch is at 114M shipped. Even if you take their lowest quarters ever and use that as a worst case scenario for the next 12 months we are still looking at around 14.7M consoles. Just 6.3M shy of 135M. Which would also mean Nintendo's FY forecast would have to be dropped again from 19M to 15.5M

Which there isn't any indication of that happening. Q1 (3.43) was higher than FY 2018 (1.97), FY 2019 (1.88), and FY 2020 (2.13). Q2 (3.25) was higher than FY 2018 (2.93) and FY 2019 (3.19), with FY 2020 being higher because of the Switch Lite launch. Q4 of FY2022 was the second highest Q4 in the Switches life. It's not showing signs of a sudden drop.



Farsala on 16 November 2022
Doctor_MG said:
Farsala said:

I wouldn't be so confident that 135m is outside of the realm of possibility. Certainly i think less than 150m is the most realistic option, but that doesn't mean I think 135m is more impossible than 165m.

I just don't see how it would be possible. Switch is at 114M shipped. Even if you take their lowest quarters ever and use that as a worst case scenario for the next 12 months we are still looking at around 14.7M consoles. Just 6.3M shy of 135M. Which would also mean Nintendo's FY forecast would have to be dropped again from 19M to 15.5M

Which there isn't any indication of that happening. Q1 (3.43) was higher than FY 2018 (1.97), FY 2019 (1.88), and FY 2020 (2.13). Q2 (3.25) was higher than FY 2018 (2.93) and FY 2019 (3.19), with FY 2020 being higher because of the Switch Lite launch. Q4 of FY2022 was the second highest Q4 in the Switches life. It's not showing signs of a sudden drop.

I agree the Switch is still trucking along with no sign of stopping. But just consider the possibility of more shortages, and Nintendo decides to completely drop the Switch for the Switch 2.

I think the state of the world makes a scenario like that more possible than Nintendo deciding to support the Switch heavily for 4 more years to reach 165m+.



AJNShelton on 16 November 2022
Farsala said:
Kakadu18 said:

Who thinks it's gonna end up below 135mil?
I'd like to hear some arguments.

I would like to hear the same for 160m plus. Always interesting to me.

Well, common sense, and based on current data. Worse case scenario:

End of 2022: 123-125 million

End of 2023: 138-140 million (+15 million in a Zelda year - again worse case scenario)

End of 2024: 150-152 million (+12 million)

End of 2025: 158-160 million (+7 million)

We know Nintendo history where they only launch a new console when the sales start to tank, which in this case will probably not happen before 2024 the earliest.

If they release a Switch Lite OLED to go with the new Zelda, it can have a positive impact on sales.



Kristof81 on 16 November 2022
Kakadu18 said:

Who thinks it's gonna end up below 135mil?
I'd like to hear some arguments.



Farsala on 16 November 2022
SKMBlake said:
Farsala said:

I would like to hear the same for 160m plus. Always interesting to me.

Well, common sense, and based on current data. Worse case scenario:

End of 2022: 123-125 million

End of 2023: 138-140 million (+15 million in a Zelda year - again worse case scenario)

End of 2024: 150-152 million (+12 million)

End of 2025: 158-160 million (+7 million)

We know Nintendo history where they only launch a new console when the sales start to tank, which in this case will probably not happen before 2024 the earliest.

If they release a Switch Lite OLED to go with the new Zelda, it can have a positive impact on sales.

160m worst case then? How much of that is from Japan? Europe?