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Farsala on 16 November 2022
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Doctor_MG said:
Farsala said:

I wouldn't be so confident that 135m is outside of the realm of possibility. Certainly i think less than 150m is the most realistic option, but that doesn't mean I think 135m is more impossible than 165m.

I just don't see how it would be possible. Switch is at 114M shipped. Even if you take their lowest quarters ever and use that as a worst case scenario for the next 12 months we are still looking at around 14.7M consoles. Just 6.3M shy of 135M. Which would also mean Nintendo's FY forecast would have to be dropped again from 19M to 15.5M

Which there isn't any indication of that happening. Q1 (3.43) was higher than FY 2018 (1.97), FY 2019 (1.88), and FY 2020 (2.13). Q2 (3.25) was higher than FY 2018 (2.93) and FY 2019 (3.19), with FY 2020 being higher because of the Switch Lite launch. Q4 of FY2022 was the second highest Q4 in the Switches life. It's not showing signs of a sudden drop.

I agree the Switch is still trucking along with no sign of stopping. But just consider the possibility of more shortages, and Nintendo decides to completely drop the Switch for the Switch 2.

I think the state of the world makes a scenario like that more possible than Nintendo deciding to support the Switch heavily for 4 more years to reach 165m+.