I believe it can reach and even go beyond 34 million in Japan (currently at 27 million) to become the best selling console.

For a while now, i've thought 145-150m.However i voted for 150-155m because there is not even the smallest hint of a successor any time soon. Like a lot have said, could be even higher if no successor comes before, say holiday 2024.

135m is obviously not going to happen. No point in even arguing about that.
165m is not going to happen...unless they have a new model and price cuts planned and aren't planning on Switch 2 until like holiday 2025. But that's extremely unlikely.
Probably 90% chance it ends up between 145m and 155m.

It should be right around 140m by end of 2023 and Switch 2 won't even have launched yet, hell it may not even be announced yet at that point. So I'd say 145m is worst case scenario. 145m would be Switch 2 coming out March 2024 and Nintendo stopping production by like end of 2025.

150m - 155m is Switch 2 coming out late Spring 2024 or holiday 2024. Most likely scenario. Figure 140m by end of 2023. Announce Switch 2 just after the holidays for like May 2024 release, Switch still probably sells 6 million in 2024 and then a few more million the next couple years in its retirement. Or Switch 2 release holiday 2024, allowing Switch to get to close to 150m by end of 2024, then sells a few more million the next couple years in retirement.

Probably only chance to beat PS2 would be if Switch 2 doesn't come out until Spring 2025. And like I said above, only chance at 165m would be if they have some major, but completely doable, things planned to extend Switch life an extra year or so and keep sales stronger.

Nintendo probably doesn't care about going after PS2's record though, they care about quarterly and yearly profits and setting up a good transition to the successor. Switch will still be strong in 2023, but will be fading to just decent sales in 2024. Makes sense to bring out the successor in the year that Switch starts heading towards just decent sales. And probably not wait until the end of that year. I would expect sales to be only like 2mil per quarter in 2024 before the holidays. So it would make sense to launch successor second quarter of that year, allowing the final big Switch games to still get precedence through the start of 2024, also by launching in the 2nd quarter of the calendar year it lets them not cut off Switch sales in its final holiday season by announcing Switch 2 before that.

So I'd say Switch sells 140m through 2023, Switch 2 announced Jan 2024, Switch 2 released May or June 2024 just as kids are going on summer break with Switch at like 143m by the Switch 2 launch date, Switch still sells a few million holiday 2024 and is close to 150m end of 2024. Switch ends up a couple million shy of the DS later on once production is ended.

That's the thing though, Switch has maintained a pretty good balance between Japan, Americas, and Europe for its entire life. Selling anywhere between 22-25% from Japan. So if Switch sells 160m, then at least 35m is required for your worst case scenario. It could make it up from Americas, but all regions are decreasing at similar rate, so the sales for now remain proportionally balanced.

I guess Nintendo could decide to stop production of the Switch sometime during 2023, because that's pretty much what it would take for Switch not to reach 135m at this point.  So, yeah... realistically, 135m for the Switch is inevitable.

Your worst case scenario has it dropping from 15-12m between it's 7th & 8th years?
I wouldn't say that kind of drop is out of the question but only if there is still no announcement of a successor.

Absolute worst case IMO is they announce S2 in Q1/2 next year, with release in holiday 2023:

End of 2022: 123-125 million (shipped)
End of 2023: 135-137 million (+12 million)
End of 2024: 140-142 million (+5 million)
End of 2025: 141-143 million (+1 million)

So anyone who picks the first option (maybe even the 2nd one) is trolling or deluded (which is intentional on Rol's part so they can be ignored or laughed at later)

Personally I think it more likely they will announce it early 2024, for a 2024 or early 2025 release (not sure if they will repeat the early release dates of 3DS/Switch or go back to launching in the holidays), this would give:

End of 2022: 123-125 million (shipped)
End of 2023: 139-141 million (+16 million)
End of 2024: 149-151 million (+10 million)
End of 2025: 153-155 million (+4 million)
Maybe an extra 1-2m after 2025 if they keep shipping it.

I had voted 130-140m when Switch was at 55m LTD, then in 2021's poll I picked 150-160m. This time I went with 160-165m.

Right now the poll options show a pretty even spread up to 160m, so it's obvious that a lot of it has to do with the expected timing of a successor. The sub-135m option assumes a follow-up console in spring 2023, because otherwise you aren't going to be able to push down the number that much; the catch is that we are only a few months away from that timeframe and still haven't even had the slightest rumor of a new Nintendo console.

The current pace of Switch is projected to be ~124m LTD at the end of 2022, making it a calendar year of 20m units. This means that a significant 50% drop in 2023 would still put the LTD figure at ~134m by the end of 2023, meaning that the 135-140m option has people convinced that the Switch successor comes in late 2023 at the latest, followed by Nintendo killing off Switch quickly. A more generous (and reasonable) decline opens up the 140-145m option for believers in a 2023 Switch successor.

An expected launch in spring 2024 makes 145-150m the low end, a launch in fall 2024 can't result in anything below 150m.

While a lot of what goes into Switch sales predictions is speculation, the one fact that's present is that the software pipeline remains healthy. That's why tremendous declines in hardware sales momentum can be ruled out.

Last time around I voted 140-150 million. My personal range now is 155-165 million. Here I voted 160-165 million (it's consistently surpassed my expectations, so I may as well go for the more optimistic end of my personal range!).

It could still fall just short of the PS2's record, depending (as Rol points out) on when its successor launches, but I now think it more likely than not that it sets a new industry record.

Either somewhere in the 150's or 160's and I'm not sure what it'll be but I'll go with the latter since it breaking the record would be really cool.

Still going with 140-145M.