SKMBlake said:
Well, common sense, and based on current data. Worse case scenario: End of 2022: 123-125 million End of 2023: 138-140 million (+15 million in a Zelda year - again worse case scenario) End of 2024: 150-152 million (+12 million) End of 2025: 158-160 million (+7 million) We know Nintendo history where they only launch a new console when the sales start to tank, which in this case will probably not happen before 2024 the earliest. If they release a Switch Lite OLED to go with the new Zelda, it can have a positive impact on sales. |
Your worst case scenario has it dropping from 15-12m between it's 7th & 8th years?
I wouldn't say that kind of drop is out of the question but only if there is still no announcement of a successor.
Absolute worst case IMO is they announce S2 in Q1/2 next year, with release in holiday 2023:
End of 2022: 123-125 million (shipped)
End of 2023: 135-137 million (+12 million)
End of 2024: 140-142 million (+5 million)
End of 2025: 141-143 million (+1 million)
So anyone who picks the first option (maybe even the 2nd one) is trolling or deluded (which is intentional on Rol's part so they can be ignored or laughed at later)
Personally I think it more likely they will announce it early 2024, for a 2024 or early 2025 release (not sure if they will repeat the early release dates of 3DS/Switch or go back to launching in the holidays), this would give:
End of 2022: 123-125 million (shipped)
End of 2023: 139-141 million (+16 million)
End of 2024: 149-151 million (+10 million)
End of 2025: 153-155 million (+4 million)
Maybe an extra 1-2m after 2025 if they keep shipping it.
