I had voted 130-140m when Switch was at 55m LTD, then in 2021's poll I picked 150-160m. This time I went with 160-165m.
Right now the poll options show a pretty even spread up to 160m, so it's obvious that a lot of it has to do with the expected timing of a successor. The sub-135m option assumes a follow-up console in spring 2023, because otherwise you aren't going to be able to push down the number that much; the catch is that we are only a few months away from that timeframe and still haven't even had the slightest rumor of a new Nintendo console.
The current pace of Switch is projected to be ~124m LTD at the end of 2022, making it a calendar year of 20m units. This means that a significant 50% drop in 2023 would still put the LTD figure at ~134m by the end of 2023, meaning that the 135-140m option has people convinced that the Switch successor comes in late 2023 at the latest, followed by Nintendo killing off Switch quickly. A more generous (and reasonable) decline opens up the 140-145m option for believers in a 2023 Switch successor.
An expected launch in spring 2024 makes 145-150m the low end, a launch in fall 2024 can't result in anything below 150m.
While a lot of what goes into Switch sales predictions is speculation, the one fact that's present is that the software pipeline remains healthy. That's why tremendous declines in hardware sales momentum can be ruled out.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
