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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 44, 2022 (Oct 24 - Oct 30)

Kakadu18 said:
PotentHerbs said:

GT7 showing some incredible legs.

It should be around 400K retail copies sold with PS4/PS5. Digital will push it anywhere to 600K - 900K total, IMO. It will be Sony's first title, in a long time, that will hit 1M+ units sold in Japan.

It's physical sales are mostly because of bundles.

True, but different than normal bundles since Sony includes the cost of the game in the bundle. 



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kazuyamishima said:
Kakadu18 said:

It's physical sales are mostly because of bundles.

True, but different than normal bundles since Sony includes the cost of the game in the bundle. 

I'm pretty sure all PS5 bundles so gar have been like that.



Kakadu18 said:

Bold: Splatoon 3 didn't launch that long ago. You can't seriously already have forgotten that there was a big hardware boost for several weeks before and after it's launch. The current hardware number is due to stock issues. In week 15 2020 the Switch only sold 25k units a few weeks after ACNH launched. Stock issues aren't something new. Like how do you even get that idea that software can't give the Switch significant hardware boost anymore?

Bold 2: There were exactly one week in the 40k range and one week in the 30k range and both just recently when stock issues started again. Weeks in the 50 or 60k range happened in every year of the Switch's life and only 2021 didn't have any weeks below 40k.

Now in it's 6th year the Switch is obviously loosing steam but it's legs are incredibly strong nonetheless.

How many units do you think the Switch will have sold in the current week with the Pokémon OLED having just launched?

I remember really well what the boost was for splatoon 3 however :

1. it wasn't as big as was with some of the big titles in the last 3 years, see animal crossing for example, launched and the switch got boosted to 800k for the week

with splatton what ? only to 400k.. Also the effect from animal crossing was way more weeks and bigger numbers the weeks after.(this is just an example is other cases too.)

2. There may be stock issues before however in the previous years most of the weeks in the year have been triple digits not double. And numbers close to 100k were much more seen through all the year than now.

As I already said software can give some boost to Switch numbers, but not as big as before and not so prolong as before. Of course now with the holiday season will be a little bit more difficult to separate the boost effect from pokemon than the normal holiday boost that Switch would have either way. It saturation point hits. And it's absolutely normal.

3. I am not talking only about the 40k week and 30k week, I am talking in general. Comparing the year and weeks numbers to 2021 2020 and even 2019, it's clear that Switch has went a path downwards, and it will only get more and more noticeable with time moving on. As I said I expect no more than 3M for 2023 for japan.

4. On your question - maybe that will be the fluke strong week I talked about, Maybe it can reach 200k that week or the week that Pokemon is launching. Other than this I expect holiday weeks between 100 and 150k for japan.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

So November and December often have huge numbers for the Switch. Any guesses for 2022?

2017- 1.302m

2018- 1.506m

2019- 1.587m

2020- 1.556m

2021- 1.238m

Peak Holiday was 2019, but 2020 and 2018 were close. 2021 was the lowest holiday, so 2022 will be interesting.

My guess is ~1.4M. Pokemon week alone should be huge, probably 200k+ if not even 300k+ if the supply is that low already 2 weeks before launch.

Edit: Maybe you should make a thread about it

Done. Except for all 3 current gen consoles.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/246882/predict-console-sales-for-november-and-december-japan/1/



Nintendo Switch shipment in Japan in the July-September quarter were 1.01mil.
Famitsu has it from July 4th to October 2nd at 1.161.839 units. Way overtracked especially when also including the MyNintendostore sales that Famitsu doesn't track.
Nintendo's total shipment to Japan is 26.96mil, to which Famitsu is closer than Media Create.



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Kakadu18 said:

Nintendo Switch shipment in Japan in the July-September quarter were 1.01mil.
Famitsu has it from July 4th to October 2nd at 1.161.839 units. Way overtracked especially when also including the MyNintendostore sales that Famitsu doesn't track.
Nintendo's total shipment to Japan is 26.96mil, to which Famitsu is closer than Media Create.

It is not overtracking. Just leftover shipments being sold. Nintendo and retailers always kept a certain amount of supply in stores, but now they both have agreed that sales are slowing so smaller shipments are sent.



Farsala said:
Kakadu18 said:

Nintendo Switch shipment in Japan in the July-September quarter were 1.01mil.
Famitsu has it from July 4th to October 2nd at 1.161.839 units. Way overtracked especially when also including the MyNintendostore sales that Famitsu doesn't track.
Nintendo's total shipment to Japan is 26.96mil, to which Famitsu is closer than Media Create.

It is not overtracking. Just leftover shipments being sold. Nintendo and retailers always kept a certain amount of supply in stores, but now they both have agreed that sales are slowing so smaller shipments are sent.

They wouldn't have over 200k units as leftover. Another thing when comparing total numbers from Famitsu and Nintendo is that based on Famitsu's numbers the MyNintendostore sales would be negative this last quarter.

This observation was made by @Hiska-kun on Installbase.

Also them sending smaller shipments on purpose doesn't make sense when they literally had stock issues with completely sold out stores. Nintendo says they have semiconductor shortages.



Kakadu18 said:
Farsala said:

It is not overtracking. Just leftover shipments being sold. Nintendo and retailers always kept a certain amount of supply in stores, but now they both have agreed that sales are slowing so smaller shipments are sent.

They wouldn't have over 200k units as leftover. Another thing when comparing total numbers from Famitsu and Nintendo is that based on Famitsu's numbers the MyNintendostore sales would be negative this last quarter.

This observation was made by @Hiska-kun on Installbase.

Also them sending smaller shipments on purpose doesn't make sense when they literally had stock issues with completely sold out stores. Nintendo says they have semiconductor shortages.

Smaller shipments are to be expected, since Nintendo already expected numbers to be down YoY before their adjustment this quarter.

Do we have definitive proof that Nintendo doesn't provide Famitsu with MyNintendostore numbers?



Farsala said:
Kakadu18 said:

They wouldn't have over 200k units as leftover. Another thing when comparing total numbers from Famitsu and Nintendo is that based on Famitsu's numbers the MyNintendostore sales would be negative this last quarter.

This observation was made by @Hiska-kun on Installbase.

Also them sending smaller shipments on purpose doesn't make sense when they literally had stock issues with completely sold out stores. Nintendo says they have semiconductor shortages.

Smaller shipments are to be expected, since Nintendo already expected numbers to be down YoY before their adjustment this quarter.

Do we have definitive proof that Nintendo doesn't provide Famitsu with MyNintendostore numbers?

Famitsu and Media Create numbers have always been lower than Nintendo's especially when there are shortages. They have never reflected MyNintendostore sales in any capacity. Apparently 2017, 2020 and 2021 the sales on that store were particularly high and Nintendo's shipments were accordingly higher than what the trackers reported.