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Kakadu18 said:

Bold: Splatoon 3 didn't launch that long ago. You can't seriously already have forgotten that there was a big hardware boost for several weeks before and after it's launch. The current hardware number is due to stock issues. In week 15 2020 the Switch only sold 25k units a few weeks after ACNH launched. Stock issues aren't something new. Like how do you even get that idea that software can't give the Switch significant hardware boost anymore?

Bold 2: There were exactly one week in the 40k range and one week in the 30k range and both just recently when stock issues started again. Weeks in the 50 or 60k range happened in every year of the Switch's life and only 2021 didn't have any weeks below 40k.

Now in it's 6th year the Switch is obviously loosing steam but it's legs are incredibly strong nonetheless.

How many units do you think the Switch will have sold in the current week with the Pokémon OLED having just launched?

I remember really well what the boost was for splatoon 3 however :

1. it wasn't as big as was with some of the big titles in the last 3 years, see animal crossing for example, launched and the switch got boosted to 800k for the week

with splatton what ? only to 400k.. Also the effect from animal crossing was way more weeks and bigger numbers the weeks after.(this is just an example is other cases too.)

2. There may be stock issues before however in the previous years most of the weeks in the year have been triple digits not double. And numbers close to 100k were much more seen through all the year than now.

As I already said software can give some boost to Switch numbers, but not as big as before and not so prolong as before. Of course now with the holiday season will be a little bit more difficult to separate the boost effect from pokemon than the normal holiday boost that Switch would have either way. It saturation point hits. And it's absolutely normal.

3. I am not talking only about the 40k week and 30k week, I am talking in general. Comparing the year and weeks numbers to 2021 2020 and even 2019, it's clear that Switch has went a path downwards, and it will only get more and more noticeable with time moving on. As I said I expect no more than 3M for 2023 for japan.

4. On your question - maybe that will be the fluke strong week I talked about, Maybe it can reach 200k that week or the week that Pokemon is launching. Other than this I expect holiday weeks between 100 and 150k for japan.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2