Okej,my bad i thought nintendo whas outperforming sony and microsoft there game divisions

Maybe they are, I’m not sure what the profits were for  Sony or Microsoft’s gaming divisions last fiscal year.

What you have to remember is that while Switch’s overall sales are huge and it’s doing very well for its age, Nintendo only shipped 10.80 million units of hardware in the fiscal year ending March 2025 which would make it one of their lowest years ever.

Fiscal year shipments (millions)

1991-19.93

1992-25.25

1993-24.36

1994-19.64

1995-10.39

1996-10.02

1997-16.58

1998-22.92

1999-23.09

2000-23.94

2001-22.78

2002-26.08

2003-21.41

2004-22.61

2005-24.59

2006-22.14

2007-34.47

2008-50.67

2009-57.55

2010-47.64

2011-36.21

2012-28.47

2013-23.73

2014-16.31

2015-12.57

2016-10.16

2017-10.77

2018-21.45

2019-19.5

2020-21.72

2021-28.83

2022-23.06

2023-17.97

2024-15.70

2025-10.80

In the last 35 years, Nintendo has only shipped this few units of hardware in FY94/95 & FY16/17.

In the early 90s NES, GB & SNES were all going strong but by FY94/95 NES was dead, GB was showing its age pre-Pokemon/Color & even SNES had peaked.

The other time was in FY16/17 when the DS/Wii era was long gone, 3DS was about 3 years past its peak and Wii U never took off to begin with.

This is kinda the downside of having only one hardware line (effectively). This is why I think Nintendo will try in the coming years to expand the Switch 2, maybe a VR model, maybe a Switch 2 Pro type thing, maybe both, etc. etc. Unified library (basically) but more hardware options. 

It looks like the current hardware ceiling excluding the one COVID bump year in 2021 is about 23 million max, I think Nintendo would like that ideally to be higher. 

Yeah it’s one of the cons of a unified ecosystem for Nintendo but overall the pros outweigh that by a ton.

With the exception of the few low periods and the massive DS/Wii era, 20-25 million units per year seems to be pretty standard.

The price increase for the Switch models in the US and Canada is due to tariffs, but it nevertheless suggests why a price hike in year 9 can be seen as an indicator of a longer lifecycle:

1. Short Remaining Lifecycle = No ROI on Price Adjustment
   A price adjustment (including re-labeling, communication, margin adaptation, and repositioning) is cost-intensive and requires coordination.
   If Nintendo were planning to sell the system for only another 2 years, the effort wouldn't be worthwhile — especially if existing inventory could simply be sold off.
   In that case, it would make more sense to maintain pricing stability or offer discounts rather than raise prices.

2. A Higher Price Only Pays Off with Longer Availability
   A price hike only becomes profitable over a larger volume of units or a longer time frame.
   This supports the idea that Nintendo is calculating with a longer sales period for the Switch.

3. Signal to Retail and Investors
   A price increase is also a signal: "This product remains relevant."
   Retail partners only invest in advertising, shelf space, and promotion if they know the console will continue to be relevant for a longer time.

With less than a million shipped the last quarter and price increases happening in the Canada and US with the possibility of the same happening in other regions I'm starting to get close to calling this. It's not outright over yet but I'd say the odds of the Switch reaching 160m are definitely in the single digits at this point. Q2 will probably be lower than Q1 considering the Switch 2 is now out and these price increases so Q3 would need to be surprisingly strong and a new model would both need to happen for there to still be a real shot I think but Nintendo isn't showing much interest in continuing to push Switch 1 sales so far. Either way it's possible the door will get fully shut on this as soon as February if Q3 isn't good enough.

Perhaps the Switch 2 gets a price increase soon to make the Switch 1 look more appealing but while I do think a price increase for that is likely by the time it happens the Switch 1 will probably be dead or just about so it won't impact things. The Switch didn't decline in the US in June like it did in Japan and Europe for whatever reason but safe to say if that didn't happen in July then it'll happen this month. Also it's funny that as recently as the past few months there still have been posts bringing up potential price cuts as a way to boost sales considering what the current market conditions are like. That suggestion already didn't make much sense back in 2023 but in 2025 it's just silly.

Hmmm interesting points! The Switch can only pass the 160M if it goes beyond March 2027 in my opinion

I don't know why people think that just because Nintendo will most likely continue to sell Switch 1, it will get over 160M. Even if the Switch is on the market in 2028, 2029 and 2030, this does not guarantee in any way reaching 160M. It really depends on how much it sells for those 3 years (if there will actually be 3 or less). Cuz if it's at 157 or 158M by end of 2026, and it does 5k per week for another 3 years, it won't reach it. So simply remaining on sale does not guarantee anything, it just gives it a higher chance in case it's super close, like 159M, cuz 3 years with sales of 5k or even 10k can do only that, 750k to 1.5M at best. Switch is already reaching 60k per week mind you, and that is in the middle of 2025, before the real drops of Switch 2 release and availability on the market takes full effect. Once that happens it may settle to 20-30k per week. And again that is 2025. So by the years I mentioned above, even 10k maybe too optimistic, it really depends on how much it will drop it's baseline until the holidays, then in 2026, and then in 2027 and beyond (again in that example scenario of Nintendo not discontinuing it after 2026 is done).

Here are some examples of consoles sales in their last years on the market before death:

• Wii - 2014 and 2015 - 1.1M in total.
• XB360 - 2015, 2016, 2017 - 830k in total.
• PS3 - 2016 and 2017 - 830k in total.
• PSP - 2015 and 2016 - 700k in total.
• PS4 - 2022, 2023 and 2024 - 550k in total.
• 3DS - 2020 and 2021 - 520K in total.

I wonder if Switch Lite will make up the majority of Switch sales in US and Canada now. Yeah, $230/280 CAD is steep, but it's less severe than the normal model and OLED.
The USA is the largest market for Nintendo, and this will hurt Switch sales. DS is way too close not to beat (I'm sure they've already manufactured enough) but PS2 is looking more and more unlikely.

Focusing on Switch 2 is the correct call as much as it may sting some people here. The faster the Switch 2 can get to 20-30 million, the better.

They could get to 160 mill, it just doesn't make sense to do so.