The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

I don't know why people think that just because Nintendo will most likely continue to sell Switch 1, it will get over 160M. Even if the Switch is on the market in 2028, 2029 and 2030, this does not guarantee in any way reaching 160M. It really depends on how much it sells for those 3 years (if there will actually be 3 or less). Cuz if it's at 157 or 158M by end of 2026, and it does 5k per week for another 3 years, it won't reach it. So simply remaining on sale does not guarantee anything, it just gives it a higher chance in case it's super close, like 159M, cuz 3 years with sales of 5k or even 10k can do only that, 750k to 1.5M at best. Switch is already reaching 60k per week mind you, and that is in the middle of 2025, before the real drops of Switch 2 release and availability on the market takes full effect. Once that happens it may settle to 20-30k per week. And again that is 2025. So by the years I mentioned above, even 10k maybe too optimistic, it really depends on how much it will drop it's baseline until the holidays, then in 2026, and then in 2027 and beyond (again in that example scenario of Nintendo not discontinuing it after 2026 is done).

Here are some examples of consoles sales in their last years on the market before death:

• Wii - 2014 and 2015 - 1.1M in total.
• XB360 - 2015, 2016, 2017 - 830k in total.
• PS3 - 2016 and 2017 - 830k in total.
• PSP - 2015 and 2016 - 700k in total.
• PS4 - 2022, 2023 and 2024 - 550k in total.
• 3DS - 2020 and 2021 - 520K in total.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 02 August 2025