This is 10th year (March 2026 - March 2027). And if they plan to produce it by March 2028, or whenever, it will be discontinued when there is no more demand. Those quarters will drop overtime, they won't be 600k each quarter, cuz if they are, they won't discontinue it in the first place. So it will be a lot less than 5.4M more in the end. However 3.4M are needed for the 160M. I expect they will drop to 400k next quarter, and some 700-800k in the holiday one, and finally some 200 to 300k in the Q4 (Jan-March 2027). With around 1M for the next fiscal year (ending March 2028)

A lot of struggle there ..

The "casual" audience on Switch is enormous, in large part thanks to the Animal Crossing phenomenon. 

Speaking of AC, it passed a staggering 50 million as of this report, which is just insane.

Something of note to mention is annual playing users was exactly the same at the end of June this year as it was June last year at 130m. Growth there has completely stopped but they're avoiding a decline so far which is a huge deal considering just how massive that userbase is. The real test though will be avoiding a decline in the coming years as Switch 2 sales slow and the Switch 1 stops getting new releases.

Doesn't that number include Switch 1 AND Switch 2 users?

The disclaimer says it is an estimate of all active Nintendo Accounts across both systems over a 12 month period.

I was going to bring up that it passed the PS2 in total software sales, but I didn't want to risk starting a flame war in the thread.

I mean, just a few posts up someone's already console warring.

Stating a software number isn't in itself instigating a flame war, if someone starts shit that would be on them.

Yeah it's both which is why it's been flat the past year. It starting to decline at some point seems like a sure thing since the Switch 2 is likely to have an over 20m sales gap with the Switch 1 at the end of its life and the Switch 1 is gonna decline in relevancy a lot quicker than the PS4.

I don't think that's necessarily guaranteed; at least not in terms of its userbase remaining active. A lot of the more casual players will probably stick with Switch 1 for many years.

Switch 2 software as a whole seems to really be struggling against Switch 1 evergreens. I’d imagine MKWorld is really getting stomped by the facf that such a large chunk of the Switch 2 user already owns the game. Additionally, the system sellers this past quarter were Pokopia and Tomodachi Life, meaning less people going out to pick up MKWorld alongside their new system.