Hardware is amazing but software is a concern, just 9.46 million sold this quarter compared to 16.41 million for Switch 1 in it's equivalent quarter. After five quarters Switch 2 totals 58.17 million games sold compared to 68.97 million for Switch 1. The Switch 1 had a much lower installbase at this stage but was averaging 3.88 games per console (68.97 divided by 17.79) versus 2.45 games per console for Switch 2 (58.17 divided by 23.68). These $70 and $80 Nintendo games aren't selling like the evergreens did on Switch 1, in fact the legs of these games are really poor by Nintendo's standards.

You guys forget that Nintendo doesn’t include in the software sales the digital only games so indie games are not in the total.

I'd say the higher prices are part of it, but the main reason is lack of games.

Switch had multiple system sellers at this point in it's lifetime, while Switch 2 at best has one (MKW) but given the critcsism that game's design has gotten I'm not even sure we can really say that is a must-have killer game for the system, but it still at least is Mario Kart. So S2 has zero to one system sellers after the 13 months this data covers, while Switch had 3 much more significant must-have system sellers after just 8 months. That obviously hurts S2 software sales. From a games perspective there really isn't much reason to own a S2 yet, and we are seeing that in the low attach rate as people bought the system based on hype of the Switch successor, but then there isn't much in the way of games to interest them.

Everyone thought that Nintendo would start the next gen at full speed given that the Switch had a really long life cycle and they have a tonnnn of money from it and the last couple years were mostly ports and smaller games. But they surprised everyone by starting the gen lying down with the only plan being that people should buy the system based on hype, which did work for the record breaking launch but then quickly stopped working. Thus we see the second year hardware forecast is much lower than the first year and software sales are weak. Nintendo has gotta be hoping that OoT, Pokemon, and 3D Mario (finnnaaalllyyyyy) hitting will juice sales numbers.

It's cause support will drop way faster due to how anaemic it is. In 2023 the PS4 got stuff like Hogwarts Legacy, RE4 Remake and MWIII while next year the Switch 1 won't be getting any big current games and developers are already beginning to drop Switch 1 versions of their games replacing it with a Switch 2 version with that happening with Decapolice. By 2028 the platform will be kinda dead in terms of new releases outside of some indie and Japanese titles.

It was normal to not report digital-only titles in the past, when there was more a defined line between a “proper” game and an indie title available only on digital stores. Now, most indie games are more highly regarded, sell for higher prices, and quite often even receive physical releases anyway.

The PS4 software numbers up to the end of the generation also do not include digital-only games, or in-fact bundled software.

I would argue major releases are significantly less important to a lot of the Switch casual audience as they were to the PS4 audience, who care a lot more about getting blockbuster titles.

Many Switch 1 owners will probably be content to carry on playing the plentiful indie/minor software or their chosen cosy forever game to years to come, not really caring about if major titles keep coming.