I think Sony and Microsoft are both aware of what's going on and its not what they would want at all.  They will try keeping the price down even if it means offering lower end SKUs.  I honest don't think that Microsoft intends to launch with a $1300 console anymore.  I expect them both to offer $599 options at launch.  This thing where these giant companies price themselves out of existence isn't something they are going to willingly walk into. 

I think consoles are basically done, but not because of physical media or ram prices. It’s the Steam Machine. PC is just much better than consoles in literally every way, and consoles will not be able to compete long term with a pc literally built to compete with them.

Prices will go down eventually. That’s just supply and demand, but you can’t uncap the PC pandora’s box that is Steam OS and the steam machine. Mark my words, the beginning of the end will be when the PS6 costs as much or more than the steam machine.

But people will still game. That won’t go away. Consoles will, though.

On the Nintendo side, I’m much more optimistic about the future than most. Because things aren’t nearly as bad as a lot of people are making them out to be.

Things shocked this generation, but Switch 2 not so much. There was a boom in Japan to get in sales under the wire, but that basically means a lower next year, but I expect things to improve after that assuming it behaves like past price increases or post major sales behaviours. The most important thing for Nintendo is brand health. But yes, a dip will occur once the price hikes are in effect, and after that they can do something to boost sales the following year. Unlike previous generations, Nintendo still has all major shells ready to fire, they haven’t needed them yet. Perhaps they anticipated this shift in the economics and did the price hike because Sony and Microsoft pulled the trigger.

The bottom line is things are more expensive than they were last year, but still monstrously cheaper than say a decade or two ago. In other words, this is an adjustment, not a catastrophe. Nintendo is m in the best position of the three because it already got its new hardware out the door, planning for a new drop is still years away, and it’s already cheaper to make. This greater time will allow Nintendo to calibrate their parts and prices most effectively for the next generation without having to wait for brand health to deteriorate the way Sony and Microsoft are going to have to.

Production lines will eventually increase to meet the demands, prices will stabilize under the new normal. And what might happen is the AI bubble might crash and the increased production means a value crash, and then you’ll see all consoles get price drops. That’s another possibility.

But, I think the catastrophe most seem to be predicting isn’t very likely. And there are potential upsides for the gaming market similar to the Wii/DS era. Nintendo still has Switch 1, and they still have Switch TV, Switch 2 Lite, and Switch 2 TV as possibilities.

You are saying that people can't afford consoles so instead they will abandon their entire digital collections to pay even more money to have the luxury of buying potentially hundreds of games again?   Because you said so and they don't have a voice in this at all?  Well im convinced!

I actually really love the idea of Steam OS and the Steam machine, even at its inflated price and but I must say, I am sick of all these communities living in their own bubble and think everyone has to conform to them.  

The best case scenario is for their to be many different platforms that offer different choices.  

With the prices of everything for the foreseeable future, hell no there isn’t. The funny thing is I was saying back in 2020 already that there wasn’t going to be demand for the next gen for like a solid decade and everyone was scoffing at me. But even PS5/Series seemed like rather marginal upgrades to the casual gamer, which is why so many still cling to their PS4 and Xbone 6 years later.

The generation jumps simply aren’t big enough. Especially now with the price of everything. They should just ride this gen into next decade until they can offer something that seems truly big in terms of an upgrade for the next gen (and hopefully when the economy is more stable again). And no, “big” doesn’t mean things only tech geeks will really care about like higher fps and whatnot

that is almost exactly what I’m saying yes. abandoning your digital library for new hardware is something that console gamers routinely have to do. not PC gamers. i’m not saying that anyone has to conform to anything. if you want to buy a PlayStation six or something you’re allowed to.

I’m just saying that what comes next is going to look more like a Wii U in comparison to everything else and what comes after that will be nothing but PC because the business model is not sustainable anymore for consoles. you can’t buy what isn’t made anymore. the economy is a business not a democracy. Xbox is failing financially. PlayStation is basically only profiting from services now and projections for the PlayStation six are at $1000 which is rivaling the price of the steam machine.

PlayStation just will not be able to compete, which only leaves Nintendo, which, for most people is a secondary weaker machine that. again, this is just the economic reality of the situation right now. personally, I don’t even like valve. I would rather GOG be making a console than valve, but that doesn’t really matter.

for essentially the same price, you will have two “consoles” competing with each other other. one will be a platform where the games regularly are cheaper, the library is bigger, you can use any launcher you want on it, you can change the operating system. You can use whatever browser you want on it. You can emulate games on it. You can keep your games forever you can move your games that you’ve had for 20 years onto it for free. You can play online games for free you can watch whatever shows or movie you want to watch on it you can make games on it. You can write code on it, you can run AI on it. You can do banking on it. You can do anything you can do on a computer on it

or you can buy a PlayStation six where you lease your own games. that’s not even a competition anymore.

I mostly agree, and I hope they're tuned in well enough to know they really need to approach next gen this way.

MS already did this with the Series S/X. They explained back in 2020 that they saw a future coming where this hardware strategy made sense. They were right. They just executed a bit poorly this time around. It would be a bit shocking if MS didn't stick with the low and high tier model for Helix. They could also add a handheld to that strategy if they decided to.

SNY can obviously do the same thing, and I don't see why they wouldn't, given what's happening and what looks to be continuing with RAM and SSD's. They've got a PS6 that's going to be Pro level in terms of cost, plus a handheld, which can only be so powerful since it's mobile. All SNY has to do is use the mobile guts of the handheld and put them in a console and they've got themselves a borderline affordable PS6 model. if they want to make it widely affordable, they can subsidize it if they want to.

This solves the cost problem for the most part. While it would hinder how far next gen can advance to a certain degree, 9th gen already wasn't that large of a leap beyond 8th gen. We're at the point of diminishing returns, so 10th gen will again be a lesser leap overall beyond 9th gen no matter what.

All excellent points.  I think they will lead with the mobile as they can probably tell from Nintendo's approach that it works.  And with the barebones version as well.  I wonder if the PS6 main console is delayed a year.

I've made a chart for the price changes, for you all to take a look, how ugly all it looks. For this generation I've included Series X and PS5 Digital, cuz it's the most expensive Xbox and the cheapest PS5. The normal PS5 is up there, similar to the Series X price changes, as well as the Series S.

Might matter how much the 'Pro' model is. Maybe, maybe not. If it's $999 or higher then maybe they wait. Otherwise, even if Pro were say $800, I think they could still launch everything at once from the start. Just let consumers choose. PS5 owners who want a clear upgrade, and a dedicated home console, won't want a PS6 Lite and won't really want to wait long for a Pro model. While they may not be able to afford Pro at launch, at least they would know it's an option and could work to save towards it asap.

I think people may be surprised how many would buy the Pro model at that cost ($800) since it's the start of a new gen. Plus, if the base PS6 hardware is PS5 performance territory, then PS5 owners will want the Pro and not the PS6 Lite. Not like all PS5 owners will necessarily get the Pro as some will upgrade to the Lite, but Pro is what plenty will get at launch or save for to buy years later.

Add at least a few banger AAA/AAAA next gen (only) titles at launch, and SNY could move way more $800 Pro's then you'd think, even if this economy.

While you'd probably see more sales overall for the cheaper base units, logically, I'd guess you'd actually end up with fairly consistent sales throughout the gen for all models in this situaiton.