On the Nintendo side, I’m much more optimistic about the future than most. Because things aren’t nearly as bad as a lot of people are making them out to be.
Things shocked this generation, but Switch 2 not so much. There was a boom in Japan to get in sales under the wire, but that basically means a lower next year, but I expect things to improve after that assuming it behaves like past price increases or post major sales behaviours. The most important thing for Nintendo is brand health. But yes, a dip will occur once the price hikes are in effect, and after that they can do something to boost sales the following year. Unlike previous generations, Nintendo still has all major shells ready to fire, they haven’t needed them yet. Perhaps they anticipated this shift in the economics and did the price hike because Sony and Microsoft pulled the trigger.
The bottom line is things are more expensive than they were last year, but still monstrously cheaper than say a decade or two ago. In other words, this is an adjustment, not a catastrophe. Nintendo is m in the best position of the three because it already got its new hardware out the door, planning for a new drop is still years away, and it’s already cheaper to make. This greater time will allow Nintendo to calibrate their parts and prices most effectively for the next generation without having to wait for brand health to deteriorate the way Sony and Microsoft are going to have to.
Production lines will eventually increase to meet the demands, prices will stabilize under the new normal. And what might happen is the AI bubble might crash and the increased production means a value crash, and then you’ll see all consoles get price drops. That’s another possibility.
But, I think the catastrophe most seem to be predicting isn’t very likely. And there are potential upsides for the gaming market similar to the Wii/DS era. Nintendo still has Switch 1, and they still have Switch TV, Switch 2 Lite, and Switch 2 TV as possibilities.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
