What do you guys think? We've recently got confirmation that the Switch has outsold the PS2 in the U.S to become the bestselling home console in U.S history and 2nd bestselling console overall in U.S history only behind the DS. Do you think the Switch has enough left in the tank to become the bestselling console?

For reference, the Switch has sold 46.6 Million Units in the U.S as of November 30th, 2024. The DS in it's lifetime has sold 53.8 Million. So still a 7 Million gap between the Switch and the DS.

Here are Switch sales in the U.S by year:

2017: 4.89 Million

2018: 5.6 Million

2019: 6.4 Million

2020: 9 Million

2021: 7.6 Million

2022: 5.8 Million

2023: 4.8 Million

2024 (Estimated December): 3.5 Million

Nope.
It can crack 50 million lifetime, maybe even 50.9-51.4 million. It'll still fall short of the DS's 53.8 million.

No idea. It depends on Nintendo. If they’ll drop the price of the Switch 1 and re-interprets it as the entry level Switch ecosystem console, while Switch 2 becomes the higher end model, then there’s a good chance. Particularly because it’s fairly close to the DS in sales. Nintendo could also release an updated version of Switch 1, or even a Switch 1 TV to boost sales.

I simply can't see how the NSW line will all of a sudden continue to grow rapidly up and reach the DS one.

Also by the way, how you estimated 3.5M with the December data ? NSW has been considerably down all year, it was barely flat for November, having the best sales, 4 stronger days difference and you estimate to do the same numbers as last year for December ? Highly unlikely I would say. It's 2.3M at this time with November included. I think it will reach something around 3M mark. Far from 3.5M.

For next year I expect something around 1M for the Switch in US, or 1.5M at the very best case scenario... unless decent price cut happens.

I wouldn't say far from 3.5M, even if November was down this year, it wasn't by much, and even before the November sales, in the previous quarter sales were only down 10% YOY, all this is making me inclined to believe the drop won't be super significant. A 1M December is certainly do able which would put the Switch at 3.3M for the year, not a crazy drop.

Also, 1M for Switch in US in 2025 seems way too low, if the Switch reaches 3M in 2024, it would require a 66% drop in sales which seems way too agressive of a drop even with the successor releasing. To put that into worldwide sales terms, its likely the Switch will sell 10-11 Million in 2024, a 66% drop the very next year would have the Switch only selling like 3-4M for the year, and with the momentum Switch has rn selling 2.6M in a non holiday quarter alone, that doesn't seem realistic. 2M seems more realistic for Switch in U.S next year. Which would put the Switch around 49.5M by end of December 2025.

Exactly because a successor releasing sales will drop big time. Also keep in mind, that without the holiday Switch was at 1.7M this year, while last year till they were at 3M, this is almost double drop. This year November with December will be something close to 50% of the sales for the whole year. Next year holidays won't be anywhere near close to this year, with successor released by then. So if it does something close to 1M till November for the next year, it won't be so much of a drop. Just the holidays at the end won't be so big as now, and it can comfortably end at 1.5M although I wouldn't be surprised if it ends something closer to 1M. It depends on how big the drops will be. Also I don't know what 10% YOY you are talking about .. The last year finished at above 16M if you talking WW. This one will end as you said 10-11M this is a lot more than 10%. This will be around 5M, so more than 30% drop YOY and almost 40% if it ends close to 10M. If you meant US, then again 3M till November vs 1.7M till this November, almost 50% And if it reaches 3M, or even your 3.5M number this year, last year US numbers were almost 4.9M which is a lot more than 10% difference.

Also why it does need to have the same drop % on the worldwide sales ? Worldwide can be something around 5-5.5M which will be 50% drop. 2M in Japan, 1M in rest of the world, and something like 1M or little above that for Europe and US. With successor releasing it's very reasonable and normal. Even it's good, there have been consoles in the past doing even less than 50% of their year before the successor is released. Don't put the same ratios and drops from US or Europe into worldwide. Rest of world may be little bit different, and Japan will surely be different. Japan is way stronger in terms of slowing and dropping compared to the US and Europe for the Switch, so the same drops can't be equal across all regions, let alone total. Again all of this assuming no price cut or big difference in the prices is presented. If for example the successor is launched at 500$ or more, or price cut is done, then the numbers surely will be closer to this year.

Sony will probably soon announce that the PS2 actually sold 60 million in the US...

If they didn't include the units post 155M in those 46.5M then they may announce something like 47.5M or 48M, which will be funny . But either way, Switch is passing those too. I am looking forward for such announcement, since it will be very funny to look at the comments and reactions of people about that.

(i) "Exactly because a successor releasing sales will drop big time." This depends on whether Nintendo continues to support NSW. I've begun to learn that systems tend to flatline once their successor releases not entirely b/c lack of consumer interest, but also b/c the producer behind the system cuts/slashes production so as to ensure the new system doesn't face the challenge of an overpowering predecessor. Happened with PS2 & PS3 once PS4 launched, happened again with PS4 when PS5 launched. This is entirely in Nintendo's hands, and I'm very unsure as to whether they choose to continue NSW support...anything can happen.

(ii) "Also keep in mind, that without the holiday Switch was at 1.7M this year, while last year till they were at 3M, this is almost double drop." NSW in USA was at 3.18mil year-to-date by the end of November 2023 (excluding Black Friday week). NSW is at 2.26mil year-to-date by the end of November 2024 (excluding Black Friday week). That's 28.9% drop YoY for NSW in USA. Nowhere near your ~45% drop claim. The reason for excluding Black Friday, just to explain myself, is b/c Black Friday was not included in the November 2024 US figures. Also worth noting is that NSW will likely see less than a 28.9% drop overall since NSW'23 gained most of it's lead during TotK. NSW during November 2024 was actly up YoY (in NA and maybe even USA), so I don't foresee anything worse than maybe 25% YoY drop in US comparing 2023 to 2024.

...and yes, I did sit down with a calculator and run through 22 different VGChartz articles adding up all the US figures for NSW.

1. I agree.

2. My claim is a fact, not just a claim. It is January - October 2023 vs January - October 2024. You don't need to get to articles, (those ones are before adjustments keep in mind). You can just go and see the hardware by date tool on the website and compare the period on monthly bases when you add up the months for each period. There, the numbers are always up to date and adjusted. I do this often since I run sales threads, and I know. So if you go there and check you will see that US sales from Jan - Oct 2023 is exactly 3M, for this year it is 1.7M. It's simple as that. If you throw in November the difference gets to 3.6M vs 2.3M. About your calculation for the Black Friday, last November the US sales for the month were till 26th, so black Friday was included. This year they are till 30th November, which again Black Friday included. No need to exclude it from the calculations. Of course with November included the drop becomes smaller since this November is flat with the last year (yes flat, 17k difference in US can't really be called up year on year, well technically it can, but it's almost nothing when you look at the full number 573k vs 590k, it's essentially the same). About the drop overall for the year, I agree it will be less in the end since November is flat, so with that the drop per year gets to 36%. December drop also may be less than the previous months. If your 25% is true, then the year in US should finish at 3.7M. So you expect 1.4M in December in US alone ? When 2023 finished short of 1.3M ? Very doubtful.