Will Switch outsell the DS in the U.S?

[XtremeBG]

javi741 said:

Also, 1M for Switch in US in 2025 seems way too low, if the Switch reaches 3M in 2024, it would require a 66% drop in sales which seems way too agressive of a drop even with the successor releasing. To put that into worldwide sales terms, its likely the Switch will sell 10-11 Million in 2024, a 66% drop the very next year would have the Switch only selling like 3-4M for the year, and with the momentum Switch has rn selling 2.6M in a non holiday quarter alone, that doesn't seem realistic. 2M seems more realistic for Switch in U.S next year. Which would put the Switch around 49.5M by end of December 2025.

Exactly because a successor releasing sales will drop big time. Also keep in mind, that without the holiday Switch was at 1.7M this year, while last year till they were at 3M, this is almost double drop. This year November with December will be something close to 50% of the sales for the whole year. Next year holidays won't be anywhere near close to this year, with successor released by then. So if it does something close to 1M till November for the next year, it won't be so much of a drop. Just the holidays at the end won't be so big as now, and it can comfortably end at 1.5M although I wouldn't be surprised if it ends something closer to 1M. It depends on how big the drops will be. Also I don't know what 10% YOY you are talking about .. The last year finished at above 16M if you talking WW. This one will end as you said 10-11M this is a lot more than 10%. This will be around 5M, so more than 30% drop YOY and almost 40% if it ends close to 10M. If you meant US, then again 3M till November vs 1.7M till this November, almost 50% And if it reaches 3M, or even your 3.5M number this year, last year US numbers were almost 4.9M which is a lot more than 10% difference.

Also why it does need to have the same drop % on the worldwide sales ? Worldwide can be something around 5-5.5M which will be 50% drop. 2M in Japan, 1M in rest of the world, and something like 1M or little above that for Europe and US. With successor releasing it's very reasonable and normal. Even it's good, there have been consoles in the past doing even less than 50% of their year before the successor is released. Don't put the same ratios and drops from US or Europe into worldwide. Rest of world may be little bit different, and Japan will surely be different. Japan is way stronger in terms of slowing and dropping compared to the US and Europe for the Switch, so the same drops can't be equal across all regions, let alone total. Again all of this assuming no price cut or big difference in the prices is presented. If for example the successor is launched at 500$ or more, or price cut is done, then the numbers surely will be closer to this year.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 22 hours ago