| XtremeBG said: I simply can't see how the NSW line will all of a sudden continue to grow rapidly up and reach the DS one.
Also by the way, how you estimated 3.5M with the December data ? NSW has been considerably down all year, it was barely flat for November, having the best sales, 4 stronger days difference and you estimate to do the same numbers as last year for December ? Highly unlikely I would say. It's 2.3M at this time with November included. I think it will reach something around 3M mark. Far from 3.5M. For next year I expect something around 1M for the Switch in US, or 1.5M at the very best case scenario... unless decent price cut happens. |
I wouldn't say far from 3.5M, even if November was down this year, it wasn't by much, and even before the November sales, in the previous quarter sales were only down 10% YOY, all this is making me inclined to believe the drop won't be super significant. A 1M December is certainly do able which would put the Switch at 3.3M for the year, not a crazy drop.
Also, 1M for Switch in US in 2025 seems way too low, if the Switch reaches 3M in 2024, it would require a 66% drop in sales which seems way too agressive of a drop even with the successor releasing. To put that into worldwide sales terms, its likely the Switch will sell 10-11 Million in 2024, a 66% drop the very next year would have the Switch only selling like 3-4M for the year, and with the momentum Switch has rn selling 2.6M in a non holiday quarter alone, that doesn't seem realistic. 2M seems more realistic for Switch in U.S next year. Which would put the Switch around 49.5M by end of December 2025.
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