Will Switch outsell the DS in the U.S?

[XtremeBG]

firebush03 said:

(i) "Exactly because a successor releasing sales will drop big time." This depends on whether Nintendo continues to support NSW. I've begun to learn that systems tend to flatline once their successor releases not entirely b/c lack of consumer interest, but also b/c the producer behind the system cuts/slashes production so as to ensure the new system doesn't face the challenge of an overpowering predecessor. Happened with PS2 & PS3 once PS4 launched, happened again with PS4 when PS5 launched. This is entirely in Nintendo's hands, and I'm very unsure as to whether they choose to continue NSW support...anything can happen.

(ii) "Also keep in mind, that without the holiday Switch was at 1.7M this year, while last year till they were at 3M, this is almost double drop." NSW in USA was at 3.18mil year-to-date by the end of November 2023 (excluding Black Friday week). NSW is at 2.26mil year-to-date by the end of November 2024 (excluding Black Friday week). That's 28.9% drop YoY for NSW in USA. Nowhere near your ~45% drop claim. The reason for excluding Black Friday, just to explain myself, is b/c Black Friday was not included in the November 2024 US figures. Also worth noting is that NSW will likely see less than a 28.9% drop overall since NSW'23 gained most of it's lead during TotK. NSW during November 2024 was actly up YoY (in NA and maybe even USA), so I don't foresee anything worse than maybe 25% YoY drop in US comparing 2023 to 2024.

...and yes, I did sit down with a calculator and run through 22 different VGChartz articles adding up all the US figures for NSW.

1. I agree.

2. My claim is a fact, not just a claim. It is January - October 2023 vs January - October 2024. You don't need to get to articles, (those ones are before adjustments keep in mind). You can just go and see the hardware by date tool on the website and compare the period on monthly bases when you add up the months for each period. There, the numbers are always up to date and adjusted. I do this often since I run sales threads, and I know. So if you go there and check you will see that US sales from Jan - Oct 2023 is exactly 3M, for this year it is 1.7M. It's simple as that. If you throw in November the difference gets to 3.6M vs 2.3M. About your calculation for the Black Friday, last November the US sales for the month were till 26th, so black Friday was included. This year they are till 30th November, which again Black Friday included. No need to exclude it from the calculations. Of course with November included the drop becomes smaller since this November is flat with the last year (yes flat, 17k difference in US can't really be called up year on year, well technically it can, but it's almost nothing when you look at the full number 573k vs 590k, it's essentially the same). About the drop overall for the year, I agree it will be less in the end since November is flat, so with that the drop per year gets to 36%. December drop also may be less than the previous months. If your 25% is true, then the year in US should finish at 3.7M. So you expect 1.4M in December in US alone ? When 2023 finished short of 1.3M ? Very doubtful.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 19 hours ago