With the way it's going now, the sales, I really doubt it. This year is more than 500k behind (at this point) to a XB1 year of just 4M (2020), so even 4M will be hard. With such a drop (almost 50% from the previous year) I don't know what Microsoft should and can do to get back on track to the previous sales speed of 8M per year or at least 5-6M so they can reach let's say 45 or even 50M lifetime. With the current speed, the 40M is very doubtful let alone more. It is already down to 50-60k per week WW since the start of April. Heck there is a chance the Switch in Japan this year can beat the WW sales of the XBSX or at least be very close. Put that into perspective. 8 years old console with only it's Japanese sales to be competitive to a 4 year old one with its WW numbers. At that point of the year XBSX is 1.5M by the start of June, by the start of July (200k more) it is around 1.7M. Switch is 1.45M by the first week of July. If XBSX continues to go lower weekly they will get even at some point. And not only that but even if we look at the WW sales of XBSX vs the Japanese of the Switch is also comparable, Switch is 33M now, it will probably finish at around 35-36M (some may say up to even 38) this is the same range XBSX can finish too. There is even a chance where XBSX couldn't reach the final Japan numbers for Switch Worldwide. What an anomaly.

You're not taking into account that the Xbox One had a strong first half of the year in 2020 due to the pandemic but then fell off and didn't sell much during the holidays due to stock running out for it. The Xbox Series will easily catch up during the 2nd half of the year and won't have any trouble 4m or even 5m and should reach about 33m by the end of the year so it reaching 40m still isn't in any doubt yet. Unless the successor releases in 2026 45m isn't in any doubt yet either.

It will catch up to an even point at best. It's considerably down from last year, and last year it made 7.5M thanks to decent holiday boost. With the speed it's going now it will be at 2.5M by september and even with some boost from the holiday period, it can go up to 4M but I can't see it much past that. It is doing barely past 200k monthly. It's holiday boost will take a hit too. 4M is the best it can reach. 6M or even 5M is like a dream with half the year barely passing 1.5M. Like @curl-6 said it's almost flatlined. See my comparison for it with the XB1'20 year, and the chart too. Instead of going up, it's almost flat in the last 2 months, and there is no reason that will change anytime soon.

It should sell over 2m during November and December so 4m is absolutely not the best it can do. It sold 7.5m last year so even though it's currently 30% down that is still on track for over 5m so 5m is not a dream, it's the current path for it. For the bolded part you're not taking into account that the 2nd half of the year makes up way more of the sales for Xbox consoles than the 1st half which is making your analysis flawed. The first half barely passing 1.5m doesn't mean it has no shot of reaching 5m due to that.

I truly want the XBOX brand to success and to be well and good, however at this time with the XBSX I can't see how it's going to happened. Sony did turn the tables with the PS3 back in the 7th gen, however Microsoft have proved they can't do that. Neither with the XB1, nor the XBSX now. I want to see that and the XBSX to at least beat the XB1 in the end, but given their actions, it's going more and more down than up.

The recent GP news probably isn't going to help either. Sure the most recent show was pretty good, but now you have to sign up for ultimate to be able to play all those upcoming day 1 titles? What happened to, PS doesn't have day 1 and should as well?

I don't know what MS was thinking, but if this was planned for some time now, which it very likely was, then they executed backwards. They did another 180. They should've made the GP announcement first, and then followed up shortly after with the showcase. Asking for more afterwards is never received well.

Because I take into account that the 2nd half will be stronger (because of the holidays) I am adding 1.5M more (the other 1M is for the 2nd half without holidays since the console is dropping in sales every month) it did 400k in January 300k for 2 months after that, and close to 200k after that. So we don't know yet if it will fall further in the next few months but it's holiday surely will take a hit when compare to last year too. With the way it's going, even if it settles at 200k per month, it will reach around 2.5M at October, so it's November + December will be around 1.5M which end in around 4M year (for comparison last year it was 2.8M). And that is if XBSX remain at 200k per month till November. Even if it barely passes the 4M mark, it will still be far from the 5M one.

I truly want the XBOX brand to success and to be well and good, however at this time with the XBSX I can't see how it's going to happened. Sony did turn the tables with the PS3 back in the 7th gen, however Microsoft have proved they can't do that. Neither with the XB1, nor the XBSX now. I want to see that and the XBSX to at least beat the XB1 in the end, but given their actions, it's going more and more down than up.

It should be higher than 2.5m by then since while it only did 230k this May that month is a relatively weak one for console sales and June is a relatively strong one so it shouldn't sell just 200k that month. I don't see it only doing 1.5m then since that would be a massive drop from the nearly 2.9m it did last year. There should be a big drop but 2m seems a lot more realistic. The Xbox One did over twice as much as 1.5m then even in 2019 and the Xbox Series isn't far behind the pace of that year so far so that would be a far better comparison for it than 2020.

I do agree that the comeback potential for the Xbox Series seems non-existent. I just think you're being pessimistic about its sales trajectory to an unrealistic degree. It's gonna do worse than the Xbox One for sure but the drop will be closer to 10m than 15m unless the successor releases 2026.