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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?


Will it reach 40 million?

Yes it will 36 60.00%
No, it will fall short 24 40.00%

40M is, likely, happening. On the other hand, not sure about 50M... but It's starting to look bad for Xbox team.

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Wman1996 said:
curl-6 said:

By the time GTA6 comes out, which might not be til 2026, Xbox Series may be so dead in the water that not even GTA can help much, similar to how not even Mario Kart 8 or Smash Bros 4 could sell the Wii U.

Once a console gains a bad reputation, especially the infamous "no gamez" label, it's extremely difficult to turn it around. A few have managed to do so, like 3DS and PS3, but that was only through a herculean effort. For most, once the rot sets in it can't be undone.

If you mean MK8 and Smash 4 couldn't save the Wii U or get it GameCube levels or above, you're absolutely right.

They are the two games that got me to buy a Wii U, and without them I doubt the Wii U could've hit 10 million (it finished at 13.56 million). That's how dire things were, and I don't even think the Mario platformers and Super Mario Maker would've been enough to get to 10 million without Mario Kart and Smash. 

The potential GTA VI boost for Xbox Series is tough to predict because of timing. A 2026 delay would probably kill any big boost for Xbox, as I really think the Fifth Xbox will be out November 2026.

If Xbox goes for broke and gets Series S permanently down to $200 USD and Series X permanently down to $300-$350 USD by the time GTA VI launches, that could help.

But yeah, Xbox can't count on a 10 million boost from GTA or even a 5 million boost. 

I mean technically Tropical Freeze and Bayonetta 2 were my "system sellers" in that they convinced me to buy the system, I meant more that not even Mario Kart or Smash could raise the system's sales above disastrous territory. No matter how great the games were, the hardware was just fundamentally unappealing.

I'm sceptical of the ability of price cuts to salvage Xbox Series; it has received a lot of steep temporary discounts so far, but these have not stopped its sales from tanking. Plus, the price of pretty much everything is increasing these days, not decreasing, leaving MS little room to cut without bleeding money.

After the recent news of studio closures I'm less sure about reaching 40 million. Sure there is GTA 6 coming, but it better arrive before sales dive too low to recover.

I just got Sea of Thieves for PS5 since I have ps+ anyway and can play together with my kids. Another reason gone to turn on the Series X. We played it together before on PC + XBox with Gamepass yet that lapsed, and wasn't working all that well on my 1060 anyway.

And with Eurogamer coming with articles like this
40M starts to look further away. I still think it should cross it, but less sure after recent developments.