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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

 

Will it reach 40 million?

Yes it will 36 60.00%
 
No, it will fall short 24 40.00%
 
Total:60
Wman1996 said:
Shatts said:

It should pass 40m just from GTA 6 alone, but fully dependent on that game. Of course sales are dropping cuz the market is so stale right now. But once the games actually come, then it shouldn't be difficult to sell a couple of millions. There are multiple factors to take into consideration tho. Like whether Microsoft would keep supporting it, whether GTA 6 will be delayed, whether GTA 6 will stay console-exclusive at launch, whether Switch 2 can play third-party AAA games.

Yeah. GTA is bigger now than it was on the original Xbox (GTA didn't help the original Xbox in a meaningful way) where there were intentionally delayed ports. 

There's no current confirmation for a PC version (we know it will happen either at launch or later on) which helps Xbox Series X/S and PS5. 

While Series S has worse specs than Series X and PS5, there is appeal for a console that's $300 USD or cheaper to play GTA VI. 

GTA VI in both the short-term and long-term will likely boost Series sales by at least 2 million, if not 5 million or more. 

50 million, and especially around 57.96 million of the Xbox One seems like a difficult unlikely battle. 42-45 million? It's quite plausible. I feel like 40 million is near the floor right now, not the ceiling. 

They denied having a PS4 / XOne version in the works as well when GTA 5 launched 2 months before PS4 / XOne launched. I bought it a year later for PS4 instead of playing it early. This time GTA 6 should still launch well before the next generation comes out, but there are already rumors it will be delayed to 2026. No idea how much of a hardware sales boost you can get 5 / 6 years into the generation.

Consoles aren't really dropping in price anymore, but there are plenty second hand options. Consoles sales seem to get more front loaded with the prices staying high. GTA 6 will give a big software boost anyway, dunno how many people will buy a 5 year old console for launch price to play one game. If you haven't found a reason to own either PS5 or Series yet, seems kinda expensive just to play one game.

Anyone have any idea how much GTA5 boosted ps3/360 sales in September 2013 if at all?



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If it was about reaching 45 million, i absolutely would say "no".
But 40 million is maybe doable. Thats a hard question to be honest.
I guess, I still rather go for "no"^^



I'm sceptical of how much GTA6 will boost Xbox in particular as PS will be the preferred place to play as the more popular console.
It will cause a bump, but I don't expect a sustained boost.



Absolutely.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

SvennoJ said:

Anyone have any idea how much GTA5 boosted ps3/360 sales in September 2013 if at all?

Yep, they got up by 2.5 times in the week GTA 5 launched, with almost getting to their previous levels in the following weeks, and then quickly got up again by the holiday boost by november. Monthly wise, they just doubled their sales in september compared to the previous months that year.



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XtremeBG said:
SvennoJ said:

Anyone have any idea how much GTA5 boosted ps3/360 sales in September 2013 if at all?

Yep, they got up by 2.5 times in the week GTA 5 launched, with almost getting to their previous levels in the following weeks, and then quickly got up again by the holiday boost by november. Monthly wise, they just doubled their sales in september compared to the previous months that year.

PS3 and 360 were a lot cheaper by then of course, but Series S should get a nice boost at least. Maybe the PS5 will finally get a price drop when the pro is out.

Should be enough to secure 40M+ with GTA 6' launch.



XtremeBG said:
SvennoJ said:

Anyone have any idea how much GTA5 boosted ps3/360 sales in September 2013 if at all?

Yep, they got up by 2.5 times in the week GTA 5 launched, with almost getting to their previous levels in the following weeks, and then quickly got up again by the holiday boost by november. Monthly wise, they just doubled their sales in september compared to the previous months that year.

That shows the power of GTA then. I suppose some customers thought it was worth getting cheaper on the way out consoles instead of buying the about to release ones and hoping GTA V would get a port.

PS4 never had backwards compatibility, Xbox One didn't get it until 2015. And of course, the ports of GTA V took until later 2014. Not to mention Xbox One was $499.99 USD with disastrous word of mouth about the removed features like online check-ins and used game debacle and such nearing launch. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

By the time GTA6 comes out, which might not be til 2026, Xbox Series may be so dead in the water that not even GTA can help much, similar to how not even Mario Kart 8 or Smash Bros 4 could sell the Wii U.

Once a console gains a bad reputation, especially the infamous "no gamez" label, it's extremely difficult to turn it around. A few have managed to do so, like 3DS and PS3, but that was only through a herculean effort. For most, once the rot sets in it can't be undone.



curl-6 said:

By the time GTA6 comes out, which might not be til 2026, Xbox Series may be so dead in the water that not even GTA can help much, similar to how not even Mario Kart 8 or Smash Bros 4 could sell the Wii U.

Once a console gains a bad reputation, especially the infamous "no gamez" label, it's extremely difficult to turn it around. A few have managed to do so, like 3DS and PS3, but that was only through a herculean effort. For most, once the rot sets in it can't be undone.

If you mean MK8 and Smash 4 couldn't save the Wii U or get it GameCube levels or above, you're absolutely right.

They are the two games that got me to buy a Wii U, and without them I doubt the Wii U could've hit 10 million (it finished at 13.56 million). That's how dire things were, and I don't even think the Mario platformers and Super Mario Maker would've been enough to get to 10 million without Mario Kart and Smash. 

The potential GTA VI boost for Xbox Series is tough to predict because of timing. A 2026 delay would probably kill any big boost for Xbox, as I really think the Fifth Xbox will be out November 2026.

If Xbox goes for broke and gets Series S permanently down to $200 USD and Series X permanently down to $300-$350 USD by the time GTA VI launches, that could help.

But yeah, Xbox can't count on a 10 million boost from GTA or even a 5 million boost. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I think it will just about get 40m but 45m is the absolute maximum based on how it's currently selling and let's be honest it will continue to decline.