After the recent news of studio closures I'm less sure about reaching 40 million. Sure there is GTA 6 coming, but it better arrive before sales dive too low to recover.
I just got Sea of Thieves for PS5 since I have ps+ anyway and can play together with my kids. Another reason gone to turn on the Series X. We played it together before on PC + XBox with Gamepass yet that lapsed, and wasn't working all that well on my 1060 anyway.
And with Eurogamer coming with articles like this
https://www.eurogamer.net/what-is-the-point-of-xbox
40M starts to look further away. I still think it should cross it, but less sure after recent developments.