Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[Norion]

XtremeBG said:

Norion said:

It should sell over 2m during November and December so 4m is absolutely not the best it can do. It sold 7.5m last year so even though it's currently 30% down that is still on track for over 5m so 5m is not a dream, it's the current path for it. For the bolded part you're not taking into account that the 2nd half of the year makes up way more of the sales for Xbox consoles than the 1st half which is making your analysis flawed. The first half barely passing 1.5m doesn't mean it has no shot of reaching 5m due to that.

Because I take into account that the 2nd half will be stronger (because of the holidays) I am adding 1.5M more (the other 1M is for the 2nd half without holidays since the console is dropping in sales every month) it did 400k in January 300k for 2 months after that, and close to 200k after that. So we don't know yet if it will fall further in the next few months but it's holiday surely will take a hit when compare to last year too. With the way it's going, even if it settles at 200k per month, it will reach around 2.5M at October, so it's November + December will be around 1.5M which end in around 4M year (for comparison last year it was 2.8M). And that is if XBSX remain at 200k per month till November. Even if it barely passes the 4M mark, it will still be far from the 5M one.

I truly want the XBOX brand to success and to be well and good, however at this time with the XBSX I can't see how it's going to happened. Sony did turn the tables with the PS3 back in the 7th gen, however Microsoft have proved they can't do that. Neither with the XB1, nor the XBSX now. I want to see that and the XBSX to at least beat the XB1 in the end, but given their actions, it's going more and more down than up.

It should be higher than 2.5m by then since while it only did 230k this May that month is a relatively weak one for console sales and June is a relatively strong one so it shouldn't sell just 200k that month. I don't see it only doing 1.5m then since that would be a massive drop from the nearly 2.9m it did last year. There should be a big drop but 2m seems a lot more realistic. The Xbox One did over twice as much as 1.5m then even in 2019 and the Xbox Series isn't far behind the pace of that year so far so that would be a far better comparison for it than 2020.

I do agree that the comeback potential for the Xbox Series seems non-existent. I just think you're being pessimistic about its sales trajectory to an unrealistic degree. It's gonna do worse than the Xbox One for sure but the drop will be closer to 10m than 15m unless the successor releases in 2026.

Last edited by Norion - on 18 July 2024