Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[Norion]

XtremeBG said:

Norion said:

You're not taking into account that the Xbox One had a strong first half of the year in 2020 due to the pandemic but then fell off and didn't sell much during the holidays due to stock running out for it. The Xbox Series will easily catch up during the 2nd half of the year and won't have any trouble 4m or even 5m and should reach about 33m by the end of the year so it reaching 40m still isn't in any doubt yet. Unless the successor releases in 2026 45m isn't in any doubt yet either.

It will catch up to an even point at best. It's considerably down from last year, and last year it made 7.5M thanks to decent holiday boost. With the speed it's going now it will be at 2.5M by september and even with some boost from the holiday period, it can go up to 4M but I can't see it much past that. It is doing barely past 200k monthly. It's holiday boost will take a hit too. 4M is the best it can reach. 6M or even 5M is like a dream with half the year barely passing 1.5M. Like @curl-6 said it's almost flatlined. See my comparison for it with the XB1'20 year, and the chart too. Instead of going up, it's almost flat in the last 2 months, and there is no reason that will change anytime soon.

It should sell over 2m during November and December so 4m is absolutely not the best it can do. It sold 7.5m last year so even though it's currently 30% down that is still on track for over 5m so 5m is not a dream, it's the current path for it. For the bolded part you're not taking into account that the 2nd half of the year makes up way more of the sales for Xbox consoles than the 1st half which is making your analysis flawed. The first half barely passing 1.5m doesn't mean it has no shot of reaching 5m due to that.