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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

 

Will it reach 40 million?

Yes it will 70 60.34%
 
No, it will fall short 46 39.66%
 
Total:116
rapsuperstar31 said:
DroidKnight said:

2024

Call of Duty

Avowed

Indiana Jones

Unannounced Titles?

2025-2026

Forza Horizon 6

Outer Worlds 2

State of Decay 3

Fable

Clockwork Revolution

Project Mara

Perfect Dark

Contraband

Gears 6

South of Midnight

The Elder Scrolls Oblivion Remaster

More CODs

Project Kestrel

More Unannounced Titles?

If you can't wait to play those games, and don't already own an Xbox you are going to want to buy an Xbox Series.  All of these game are going to eventually end up on a Playstation system for those with patience.  It may not be on the PS5 but they are coming at some point.

You say that, but we don't know for sure or how long it will take to happen. Most casual gamers, the majority of people who buy consoles, will never know this or care. They will buy the system that they see the game release and advertised for. If they try to look the game up and it's not available for the ps5, this is all they need to see to get an Xbox. This is a damn good lineup of games Xbox has cooking with this not even close to everything so there is bound to have some big hits among the crowd. 

Last edited by smroadkill15 - on 02 May 2024

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As of the latest monthly sales here, Xbox is down to around a quarter of Playstation worldwide, and close to a third of the 7 year old Switch.

This sort of collapse could prove impossible to arrest; there comes a tipping point where a system's image is so damaged that nothing can sell it any more, as happened with Wii U.

The impact of new software will likely also be nullified by the fact that people will now expect their games to eventually come to PS5.



With the Rumor that Xbox is going to be a Steam service and bring all-party IPs to PlayStation. If that happens it will be a huge blow to the industry. Not as Xbox producing so much quality as tbh they're not. Just being the only other major console in the arms race. Sony with no competition is not a good thing. Nintendo is in their bubble. Phil has killed the brand. He's so fucking inept.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

DekutheEvilClown said:

It seems crazy to think it wouldn’t do 40m but it really is possible that it won’t. Sales can only fall so far before they totally collapse and the product isn’t worth supporting. Xbox is currently doing ~300-400k a month? What if it’s doing 200k a month next year? That seems like modern Dreamcast territory to me.

Last quarter, its rumored to be just below 800k.
A quarter is 3 months, so 800k/3 = 267k ish pr month.



What happened? I heard that consumer friendly Microsoft would give arrogant Sony a run for its money this Gen.




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It should pass 40m just from GTA 6 alone, but fully dependent on that game. Of course sales are dropping cuz the market is so stale right now. But once the games actually come, then it shouldn't be difficult to sell a couple of millions. There are multiple factors to take into consideration tho. Like whether Microsoft would keep supporting it, whether GTA 6 will be delayed, whether GTA 6 will stay console-exclusive at launch, whether Switch 2 can play third-party AAA games.



Geralt99 said:

What happened? I heard that consumer friendly Microsoft would give arrogant Sony a run for its money this Gen.


They didn't launch it with anything, 2021 was a solid year, 2022...they didn't releases anything (besides indie game Pentiment), 2023 they finally released a big game halfway through they year in Redfall.  Starfield which I personally enjoyed, seemed like there were more people that were disappointed in it as opposed to loving it.  This year and next year looks fantastic, but it's starting to look like it's too little too late.  Sony itself after having a fantastic 2020-2022 hasn't released much either first party wise.



Shatts said:

It should pass 40m just from GTA 6 alone, but fully dependent on that game. Of course sales are dropping cuz the market is so stale right now. But once the games actually come, then it shouldn't be difficult to sell a couple of millions. There are multiple factors to take into consideration tho. Like whether Microsoft would keep supporting it, whether GTA 6 will be delayed, whether GTA 6 will stay console-exclusive at launch, whether Switch 2 can play third-party AAA games.

Yeah. GTA is bigger now than it was on the original Xbox (GTA didn't help the original Xbox in a meaningful way) where there were intentionally delayed ports. 

There's no current confirmation for a PC version (we know it will happen either at launch or later on) which helps Xbox Series X/S and PS5. 

While Series S has worse specs than Series X and PS5, there is appeal for a console that's $300 USD or cheaper to play GTA VI. 

GTA VI in both the short-term and long-term will likely boost Series sales by at least 2 million, if not 5 million or more. 

50 million, and especially around 57.96 million of the Xbox One seems like a difficult unlikely battle. 42-45 million? It's quite plausible. I feel like 40 million is near the floor right now, not the ceiling. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:

Yeah. GTA is bigger now than it was on the original Xbox (GTA didn't help the original Xbox in a meaningful way) where there were intentionally delayed ports. 

There's no current confirmation for a PC version (we know it will happen either at launch or later on) which helps Xbox Series X/S and PS5. 

While Series S has worse specs than Series X and PS5, there is appeal for a console that's $300 USD or cheaper to play GTA VI.

GTA VI in both the short-term and long-term will likely boost Series sales by at least 2 million, if not 5 million or more. 

50 million, and especially around 57.96 million of the Xbox One seems like a difficult unlikely battle. 42-45 million? It's quite plausible. I feel like 40 million is near the floor right now, not the ceiling. 

By the time GTA VI hits the market the second hand market will be so flooded with Series S (and X) units that I don't think it will do anything good for Xbox but stop the bleeding for that quarter. Still laughing my ass off at DF's video where they find tons of second hand Series S units at 100 pounds (no controller).

And $400 cheaper is better than $300 any day of the week going by that reasoning.



Xbox Series dropping in the 60s weekly is huge thing, with that speed it is debatable if it will reach even 5M for the year ..