At this point I see Switch hitting 157m-158m lifetime. If next gen comes out next Spring I could see it being at 153m by the launch or end of that Spring quarter, passing 155m by end of 2025, and sell a couple million more after that. This is assuming there is no price cut to boost sales, as without a price cut OG and OLED Switch sales should very quickly die out once next gen starts since people will be able to pay just a little bit more to get the brand new system, so I except pretty much only the Lite to be selling mostly to kids once next gen starts.

However if they were to do a $50 price cut across the board next year, along with dropping a bunch of first party games to $30, I could see Switch having a possibility to hit 160m as that could make a $250 OG Switch or $150 Lite with cheap games a possible pickup for Sony/MS/PC gamers or budget gamers who haven't yet picked it up but would be interested in playing some of Switch's gems at a low price.

Is Switch 2 coming at bad time?

According to the new video of Michael Pachter the Lite model will drop to 129$ and OLED drop to 199$. Also according to him the next gen PS and Xbox are coming no earlier than 2028 for PS5, and no earlier than 2027 for Xbox.

As things are, Switch wont even hit 150 mil at the end of its life, except maybe if Nintendo cut the price by a hefty margin. 160+ mil is just pure delirium.

Is Michael Pachter taken seriously?

You don't think the switch can ship another 6.58 million throughout the rest of its life? 160+ is a big ask but 150 is pretty much guaranteed at this point.

I watched the video, Pachter says the Switch 2 will be fine and Nintendo is in a good situation. I tend to agree.

He also predicts that GTA VI will revive the console sales. I am unsure about that. Sure, it will bump sales, but I am not certain it will raise the baseline, lead to a sustained higher sales volume. But we'll see I guess.

Therefore, no price drops of any kind will happen and PS/Xbox next gen console are to be released earlier than expected !

Hot take from Goomba!

with just under 144M at end of June. We’re probably already at 145 I give the switch not selling 5m more a smaller chance than reaching 200m which is also impossible. Just more possible than missing 150. lol. 

lmao, Michael Pachter of "PS3/360/Wii will be the last console generation" and "Playstation is doomed and will cease to exist in 10 years" fame.

As for Switch selling 150m lifetime, it will probably sell more than that by the end of the year.

What do we think the final software count will be? Can it hit 1.5 billion?