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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How much units will the Switch sell next year?

         

How much will the Switch sell in 2021?

< 5M 1 $1.00 1.89%
 
5-7.5M 0 $0.00 0%
 
7.5M-10M 0 $0.00 0%
 
10M-12.5M 0 $0.00 0%
 
12.5M-15M 1 $5.50 1.89%
 
15M-17.5M 2 $969.00 3.77%
 
17.5M-20M 5 $2,500.00 9.43%
 
20M-22.5M 14 $2,401.67 26.42%
 
22.5M-25M 10 $5,051.00 18.87%
 
> 25M 20 $8,872.00 37.74%
 
 
Totals: 53 $19,800.17  
Game closed: 12/31/2020

With the Switch close to it's peak, what do you think will it sell next year? I talk about calendar year 2021 and numbers according to VGC. And to make it something you not just about preferences, I make it a bet, so you should put your VG$ where your mouth is.

You can also bet, which console will sell the most in 2021.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 25 November 2020

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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5 million? Do you expect Switch lifetime sales to be 80 million or so? smh

The absolute minimum option would be 15 million

And even 20 million is already a pessimistic prediction, it would lead for about 35% drop after the peak year. It's not how consoles sales usually behave



Looks like you copy-pasted your poll ranges from another thread. This makes it very easy to pick an option because anything below 20m borders on insanity.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

IcaroRibeiro said:

5 million? Do you expect Switch lifetime sales to be 80 million or so? smh

The absolute minimum option would be 15 million

And even 20 million is already a pessimistic prediction, it would lead for about 35% drop after the peak year. It's not how consoles sales usually behave

RolStoppable said:

Looks like you copy-pasted your poll ranges from another thread. This makes it very easy to pick an option because anything below 20m borders on insanity.

I put exactly the same range of options for Series X/S, PS5 and Switch.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:

I put exactly the same range of options for Series X/S, PS5 and Switch.

So you openly discriminate against Nintendo and common sense.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Mnementh said:

I put exactly the same range of options for Series X/S, PS5 and Switch.

So you openly discriminate against Nintendo and common sense.

Do I? If I don't treat Nintendo special I discriminate against them?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
RolStoppable said:

So you openly discriminate against Nintendo and common sense.

Do I? If I don't treat Nintendo special I discriminate against them?

Actually, you are treating Nintendo special because you are willfully ignoring sales data. You don't do the same thing for Sony and Microsoft.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
Mnementh said:

Do I? If I don't treat Nintendo special I discriminate against them?

Actually, you are treating Nintendo special because you are willfully ignoring sales data. You don't do the same thing for Sony and Microsoft.

I guess I could've added a 22.5M and a 25M option (for all three platforms). Too late now, as people already placed bets.

EDIT: Actually I can - as people can change their bet. So attention everyone, I added higher options, if you want to use them please change your bet!

Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 November 2020

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

I voted 25m+. I think Switch will keep doing well next year.



lol to the one person so far who voted 15 - 17.5 million! The 17.5 to 20 mil option should have been the lowest, as anything under 20 million is seriously lowballing it. I bet 22.5 to 25 mil as I think Switch will decline a few million from this year. It'll probably hit in the upper part of the range though, maybe just under 25 mil.

Switch should actually have the supply to meet demand next year, unlike this year, since they've increased production so much this year. And they've got new model, BotW2, likely price cuts or at least for the original, a big pokemon remake, Mario 3D World port, MH, likely stronger than ever 3rd party, and probably a bunch of other great 1st party games. On paper you'd think it would beat 2020 but I don't see beating AC + Covid demand, plus you've got some competition from the next gen systems that'll factor in a bit to where people spend money.