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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How much units will the Switch sell next year?

         

How much will the Switch sell in 2021?

< 5M 1 $1.00 1.89%
 
5-7.5M 0 $0.00 0%
 
7.5M-10M 0 $0.00 0%
 
10M-12.5M 0 $0.00 0%
 
12.5M-15M 1 $5.50 1.89%
 
15M-17.5M 2 $969.00 3.77%
 
17.5M-20M 5 $2,500.00 9.43%
 
20M-22.5M 14 $2,401.67 26.42%
 
22.5M-25M 10 $5,051.00 18.87%
 
> 25M 20 $8,872.00 37.74%
 
 
Totals: 53 $19,800.17  
Game closed: 12/31/2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I voted 25m+. I think Switch will keep doing well next year.

Same here, 25m+



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This honestly has two main factors to it.

First will the Ps5 and Xbox______ solve their supply bottleneck.

Second is the games. Evergreen titles are important but people will buy the system in small, but important, numbers to ensure they get to play cult games like Bayonetta 3 and NMH 3.



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

Slownenberg said:

lol to the one person so far who voted 15 - 17.5 million! The 17.5 to 20 mil option should have been the lowest, as anything under 20 million is seriously lowballing it. I bet 22.5 to 25 mil as I think Switch will decline a few million from this year. It'll probably hit in the upper part of the range though, maybe just under 25 mil.

Switch should actually have the supply to meet demand next year, unlike this year, since they've increased production so much this year. And they've got new model, BotW2, likely price cuts or at least for the original, a big pokemon remake, Mario 3D World port, MH, likely stronger than ever 3rd party, and probably a bunch of other great 1st party games. On paper you'd think it would beat 2020 but I don't see beating AC + Covid demand, plus you've got some competition from the next gen systems that'll factor in a bit to where people spend money.

They'll also have a flood of content/promotion with both Zelda 35th and Pokemon 25th anniversaries running.  And this time they would have been planned/designed with COVID in mind vs Mario 35th anniversary promotion being originally rumored to begin in April (start of FY) and then getting crammed into the last 3.5 months of the year instead.



This year should be the Switch's peak. Next year Switch will be on the down swing. Nintendo consoles typically drop faster than Sony's consoles, but due to the Switch's popularity, it's unique place in the market, and the proposed software lineup (heavy hitters like Zelda and Metroid) I think it'll be slower. 20-23M is my guess. The year after will probably be under 17M.



What is the projection for this year?



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okr said:

What is the projection for this year?

Through 46 weeks of VGC tracking it is ahead of everything, including 07 and 08 DS which are the two highest years on record.

30M for 2020 is the safe guess, but honestly it should have a bigger December than 07 NDS had (08 DS went higher than 07 in December, despite lagging behind the rest of the year - NSW should be in that ballpark).  So maybe 31-32M is possible.



Voted >25M. It will match or pass this year if the Pro revision happens and it is counted along with the rest of NSW sales.



It's going to be >25M... I mean this is a joke poll right?

They've only started to enter the Chinese market and it seems they are really going to see a lot of growth there, already catching up to the PS4.

They only launched Switch in 2019 in China. It's the biggest videogame market so if Nintendo can carve out even 5% of the overall gaming market that would translate in millions and millions of consoles. Their games don't have problems passing censorship and most Japanese 3rd Parties are already in relations with Tencent or other local Chinese companies for localization and marketing. 

I will just leave this here: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/243789/furukawa-other-regions-grew-by-a-huge-152yoy-driven-by-asia/1/#8



RolStoppable said:

Looks like you copy-pasted your poll ranges from another thread. This makes it very easy to pick an option because anything below 20m borders on insanity.

I mean, I do agree with you but so far the poll is showing that there are people who think otherwise, so I think that right there justifies the existence of the options on the poll.



chakkra said:
RolStoppable said:

Looks like you copy-pasted your poll ranges from another thread. This makes it very easy to pick an option because anything below 20m borders on insanity.

I mean, I do agree with you but so far the poll is showing that there are people who think otherwise, so I think that right there justifies the existence of the options on the poll.

The initial poll had 20m+ as its highest option, so the vast majority of votes would have been combined into a single answer.

The updated poll added the ranges 20-22.5m and 22.5-25m, but that's still not sufficient. Whether people think Switch will be slightly down, flat or up year over year, they all have to vote 25m+ now despite differing opinions. On the other end of the spectrum there are five options that nobody realistically needs, so it's still a bad poll. It's better than before, but it's still not good.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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