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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How much units will the Switch sell next year?


How much will the Switch sell in 2021?

< 5M 1 $1.00 1.89%
5-7.5M 0 $0.00 0%
7.5M-10M 0 $0.00 0%
10M-12.5M 0 $0.00 0%
12.5M-15M 1 $5.50 1.89%
15M-17.5M 2 $969.00 3.77%
17.5M-20M 5 $2,500.00 9.43%
20M-22.5M 14 $2,401.67 26.42%
22.5M-25M 10 $5,051.00 18.87%
> 25M 20 $8,872.00 37.74%
Totals: 53 $19,800.17  
Game closed: 12/31/2020

This year was obviously hugely over-inflated for the Switch due to the one-two punch of Animal Crossing and the COVID bump. With the game now being nine months old, AC is almost certainly moving a negligible amount of hardware at this point, and things are likely to start heading back to normal in 2021 as the COVID vaccine gets distributed so we're likely to see less money spent on at-home entertainment next year. Unless there's something huge to boost Switch sales like a major price cut or COVID continues to be a massive issue throughout 2021, I don't see the Switch being anywhere close to 2020 levels, probably closer to 2019 levels, thought probably not lower than 2019 levels.

Globally, I'd say no less than 20M but no more than 25M, probably closer to the middle to lower part of that range.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 21 December 2020


In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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With Switch accelerating it's dominance in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, while re-entering Brazil - you folks seriously expect it to be down 5 million units YoY?

2021 > 2020

Couple of factors:

  • Q1 2020 was underwhelming due COVID disrupting the supply-chain, even in Q2 2020 Switch continued to have supply problems across most markets
  • Ring Fit & New Horizon continue to attract new users
  • China sales are accelerating in just a week in one retailer there has been over 1,000 reviews for Ring Fit Adventure Bundle, the game only launched officially in September, New Horizon hasn't even launched officially in China!
  • South Korea & Taiwan combined are selling more than France did in 2019
  • There was no big games since the New Horizon launch

2021 will fix some of these problems

  • Q1/Q2 2021 will up YoY because there is no supply problems and major markets like China & Brazil will start to contribute
  • Q1/Q2 2021 also have far greater support announced by 3rd Parties - Monster Hunter Rise, Story of Seasons, Rune Factory 5, SMT V, Bravely Default 2 are all games that will push Switch in Japan and Asia - compare that to this year when in the first two quarters... *checks notes* we had One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4  
  • Lastly in the fall we are likely to get one big Fall Nintendo title and one big Pokemon title - something we lacked in 2020

noshten said:

you folks seriously expect it to be down 5 million units YoY?


People here are expecting it to be down 10 million* YoY

OK, last days to place or change your bet. I graphed the current bets for all three consoles (in three threads):

People see Switch above 17.5M apparently.

You can still change your bets until the year ends.

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]