How can Switch not pass 150 when it's already over 140

150 is all but confirmed and 160 has a very good chance to happen

@Spindel I think it would be pretty hard, at this point, to imagine the successor launching this year, at this point.

Also, I think it would be just as hard to imagine the Switch not surpassing 150m. Nintendo's own projections through March 2025 have the Switch knocking on 155m. Even if they miss that projection, Switch is likely still going to be produced into 2026 and maybe into 2027. Can't see it selling less than 10m between now and 2027. Even if a successor launched this year, but definitely if a successor launches sometime in 2025 (personally betting on a December reveal, March blowout and June release).

Switch will most likely pass 150M however with the current speed and drops it is doing every month, I don't see it much above that, unless price cut happens. It dropped 50% worldwide in total sales, since January. It made almost 1M and for April it was 600k almost half of what January was. And with the drops keep getting bigger every month, and the Japan market also began to drop in the last few weeks, Switch is all but sure to have 500k months going forward. And I won't be surprised if by the time we enter September and October it has reached 400k monthly. With this speed and drops I expect even bigger ones next year when the successor is announced and launched. So at this point in time, unless price cut happens I am not seeing Switch much above 150M when all is said and done. Maybe 155M at the most. I can accept the range of 150-155M.

While I do see what you’re saying, it should be noted that Switch had a pretty dry January through June lineup, whereas the latter half will see a brand new Zelda (with a Zelda Switch Lite to accompany it), Mario Party, and M&L. Do I personally anticipate Switch sales to drop below 500k per month anytime in the next six months? The only month I could possibly see that happening would be August, but otherwise, not even a chance. I’d expect ~1mil for September, ~800k for October, ~1.25mil for November, ~2.75mil for December **assuming there’s not a price cut nor any new affordable model.**

Yes you are right, however in case there weren't any games I could see the Switch maybe dropping below 500k per month. Because of the titles, I expect to hold the drops to not go under 500k per month. Maybe 550-600k at top with a good titles in a given month. But in that level still. We will see soon enough of course. Also I didn't saw when there are more of the big titles for it, however if they are in september and october, then maybe it won't drop to 400k then, it may stay up to 500k. Either way the drop from 1M and even 1M+ from last year months, to ~500k months now is big, and not that good sign for it's goal of 160M.

Doubtful. Metroid was always a more niche series targeted at more core players. And this late in the life of the Switch it seems likely that most people that are excited for the game already own a Switch. A special edition (like the zelda one) might shift a few units. Overall Metroid Prime will have negligable impact on the sales of the system. Especially if it is cross-gen (which I kinda suspect).

You really think Metroid Prime 4 will do 4-10 million? The max that game is reaching is like 3.5 million. Metroid isn't that big.

Switch should have little trouble finishing the calendar year at 150m shipped, but it would obviously have to be well over that to hit Nintendo's 154.82m projection by next March.  I once said that I believe Switch will be just below the DS' total by March 2025 and I still stand by that, since I think it could indeed miss its 13.5m fiscal target.

But it should be clear to anyone by now that Switch is destined to become Nintendo's biggest selling console for sure.  It just ain't in the cards that it falls short of that accolade at this point.

Even the 3DS shipped more than 17 million units just after 2016 when the Switch was already announced, and somehow, many people here expect that the Switch will not sell the less than 20 million remaining for 160 million. I don't get it.

I struggle to see Zelda not moving a significant number of units, especially seeing how TotK performed as well how the EoW trailer having already amassed nearly 5mil views (which borders on the number of view any given TotK trailer had received within its first few days). With the Switch Lite model being the first Switch with a traditional Zelda design to it, I feel like 1mil is a reasonable expectation for September, with momentum carrying into October a little bit. Agree to disagree, I suppose. Once 2025 starts, that when sales will truly plummet. I see no way the Switch can maintain >500k/month with a revealed successor coming within only a few months.