@Spindel I think it would be pretty hard, at this point, to imagine the successor launching this year, at this point.
Also, I think it would be just as hard to imagine the Switch not surpassing 150m. Nintendo's own projections through March 2025 have the Switch knocking on 155m. Even if they miss that projection, Switch is likely still going to be produced into 2026 and maybe into 2027. Can't see it selling less than 10m between now and 2027. Even if a successor launched this year, but definitely if a successor launches sometime in 2025 (personally betting on a December reveal, March blowout and June release).