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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

XtremeBG said:
firebush03 said:

Dang, I didn’t realize Switch was already at 156.69M shipped. With Tomodachi and RH likely giving the system enough of a boost to cruise through 157.00M by Sept 30th, and EU stock clearance in preparation for the Spring discontinuation, the system should be comfortably be in 158.00M territory entering CY’27. All that’d be left is 2M… can the Switch 1 pull it off?

Famitsu data suggests Switch 1 may have 0.5-1.0M from JP left in the tank, and EU has at most 100k post-2026, so all eyes are on NA (alongside some niche markets like China and India). From what I’m seeing regarding quarterly data, it looks like NA has been outperforming JP. It’ll be razor thin, but I might honestly be back on the “It’s gonna happen.” side.

Yea it should be at 157M shipped as of September 30th. Although with the decline in shipments over the last 2 years, 1M in the holiday is a little bit optimistic, given how much of a drop was the previous quarters to those from the FY before that. Europe will boost it a little but still. Last holiday quarter was 1.36M, this I would say may be around 800k, but yeah it should be anywhere around 158M shipped by end of the calendar year. I am again uploading the quarters table here, just for comparison sake for both DS and the Switch, so that both previous quarters and drops from them can be seen, and also how the DS went in it's last couple of quarters.

Last quarter sales based on vgc where 598k and shipments where 670k, in current quarter sales are on track to be nearly 450k.

How much should we expect shipments to be for the past quart in your opinion?



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tak13 said:
firebush03 said:

Dang, I didn’t realize Switch was already at 156.69M shipped. With Tomodachi and RH likely giving the system enough of a boost to cruise through 157.00M by Sept 30th, and EU stock clearance in preparation for the Spring discontinuation, the system should be comfortably be in 158.00M territory entering CY’27. All that’d be left is 2M… can the Switch 1 pull it off?

Famitsu data suggests Switch 1 may have 0.5-1.0M from JP left in the tank, and EU has at most 100k post-2026, so all eyes are on NA (alongside some niche markets like China and India). From what I’m seeing regarding quarterly data, it looks like NA has been outperforming JP. It’ll be razor thin, but I might honestly be back on the “It’s gonna happen.” side.

Not that much stock in Japan, the  gap, which actually is way bigger than what you mentioned, is most likely due to imports (and my nintendo /amazon store sales ) , so untracked(perhaps 1.2m) NS stands at 38.55m shipped as of june 2026...

Nintendo might even constricting the supply currently, NS had a leap in sales out of nowhere in early September and then dove to 7k oddly enough.

Based on vgc, row (latin america etc) is now the stronghold, Vgc estimates sales in Austrialia & NZ alone to be almost 5k every week, which is kinda close to Jap-Eu weekly sales.

Our Japan estimates are helped with Famitsu and in the past Media Create as well. The reason for the huge gap is due to imports as you said to mainland Asia, which is why we currently have sell-through on RoW above the shipped figure. Basically Japan and RoW balancing each other out. Europe has a small gap that will shrink down to very little by early next year. It is the Americas that has the biggest gap (ignoring Japan).

I haven't updated the gap, but at the end of June 2026 the gap between shipped and our sell-through estimates were 1.42M WW, 0.58M Americas, 0.27M Europe, 1.57M Japan, and -1.01M RoW. Last as I stated due to imports from Japan.

Nintendo's and Sony's earnings reports are both releasing November 5. As we always do expect adjustments if needed. At this point we want the Switch 1 and PS5 gap between shipped and sell-through to shrink pretty much every quarter. 

Last edited by trunkswd - 9 hours ago

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

tak13 said:
Last quarter sales based on vgc where 598k and shipments where 670k, in current quarter sales are on track to be nearly 450k.

How much should we expect shipments to be for the past quart in your opinion?

First I wouldn't bet the gap between both to be the same each time, so it's wrong to calculate it that way, cuz things change. For example, sales for the quarter before that were 670k and the shipments were 550k. Secondly, even if I had to calculate by this, I can't since September data is not out yet. Third, how did you decide they are on track to be nearly 450k? they are 275k for July and August, they can easily end at 125k in September and finish at 400k. And let's not forget that often times there are adjustments once the quarter report hits. But to answer, I expect quarter shipments to be around 450 to 500k.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 8 hours ago

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