The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

[trunkswd]

tak13 said:

firebush03 said:

Dang, I didn’t realize Switch was already at 156.69M shipped. With Tomodachi and RH likely giving the system enough of a boost to cruise through 157.00M by Sept 30th, and EU stock clearance in preparation for the Spring discontinuation, the system should be comfortably be in 158.00M territory entering CY’27. All that’d be left is 2M… can the Switch 1 pull it off?

Famitsu data suggests Switch 1 may have 0.5-1.0M from JP left in the tank, and EU has at most 100k post-2026, so all eyes are on NA (alongside some niche markets like China and India). From what I’m seeing regarding quarterly data, it looks like NA has been outperforming JP. It’ll be razor thin, but I might honestly be back on the “It’s gonna happen.” side.

Not that much stock in Japan, the  gap, which actually is way bigger than what you mentioned, is most likely due to imports (and my nintendo /amazon store sales ) , so untracked(perhaps 1.2m) NS stands at 38.55m shipped as of june 2026...

Nintendo might even constricting the supply currently, NS had a leap in sales out of nowhere in early September and then dove to 7k oddly enough.

Based on vgc, row (latin america etc) is now the stronghold, Vgc estimates sales in Austrialia & NZ alone to be almost 5k every week, which is kinda close to Jap-Eu weekly sales.

Our Japan estimates are helped with Famitsu and in the past Media Create as well. The reason for the huge gap is due to imports as you said to mainland Asia, which is why we currently have sell-through on RoW above the shipped figure. Basically Japan and RoW balancing each other out. Europe has a small gap that will shrink down to very little by early next year. It is the Americas that has the biggest gap (ignoring Japan).

I haven't updated the gap, but at the end of June 2026 the gap between shipped and our sell-through estimates were 1.42M WW, 0.58M Americas, 0.27M Europe, 1.57M Japan, and -1.01M RoW. Last as I stated due to imports from Japan.

Nintendo's and Sony's earnings reports are both releasing November 5. As we always do expect adjustments if needed. At this point we want the Switch 1 and PS5 gap between shipped and sell-through to shrink pretty much every quarter. 

Last edited by trunkswd - 10 hours ago