I’m an optimist, though 4.5mil F’26 would make surpassing PS2 rather challenging. Unless tariffs cause NSW2’s price to explode (and leave NSW’s price unaffected), then I don’t see Switch hitting PS2. My guess is around 159-160mil LTD.

160M would be hitting the PS2...

@javi741 But that is assuming they stop producing Switch 1 after March 2027. What if they continue a little bit past that? I personally think they'll go to around September 2028.

I agree with everyone that it will be challenging, but is still doable. I feel like Switch 1 needs to reach 161m in order to definitively pass PS2 at this point. Assuming they reach 4.5m by next March, maybe 2.25 or 2.5m for the following FY and then about 1m for the quarter after that and then less than 1m by March 2029 (with production ending September 2028.

PS2 is 160.6mil (according to Shawn Layden)…so, you make a good point. Maybe to reword myself a little lol, i was intending to say like 158.6mil to 160.3mil. It’ll be *veeeery* close imo…but I’m not sure if Switch can do it. If Nintendo really cared, they could absolutely get out an extra hundred thousand systems to match/surpass, but I don’t think they care all too much tbh.

However, what could give the Switch 1 an advantage over the DS in terms of longevity is the fact that the Switch Lite is still under half the cost of the Switch 2, and the OG Switch is still 150$ less than Switch 2 which is a decent margin. By the time the 3DS got its price cut shortly after launch, the biggest price gap their was between DS and 3DS was 70$ where the DS Lite was 99$ vs 169$ for 3DS, a decent gap but not huge either, it was small enough to the point where people would rather spend 70$ more for a much newer and better DS.

A gap between Switch Lite and Switch 2 is a huge 250$, so that's still a big enough gap for people to just stick with getting a Switch Lite, especially for kids who don't have their own disposable income with parents who'd want to cheap out on getting the cheaper product. So that could mean the Switch 1 will have better legs.

At the same time tho, the Switch Lite never been a very high seller for Nintendo and easily the least appealing of the 3 versions of Switch, so it might not appeal well enough for the price gap to make a difference to outsell the PS2, we should see.

XtremeBG, will you update the graph with the new data for the Switch 1?

My charts are updated once per 4 months instead of 3. So I update them only after the data for April, August and December came out. So I will update it soon, once the data for April came out.

156-157M, final answer. I'm assuming it maintains the just under 0.6-to-1 average ratio it's maintained against what the DS shipped in its last two years before replacement, which is just as good of a guess as anyone else's. Shipments are almost certainly going to have huge YoY drops from here on out, possibly 50% or higher, which is the norm a system post-replacment, Nintendo or otherwise (the PS2 was the lone exception).

Did Nintendo provide a forecast for Switch's shipment from April to June?

Are you expecting them to fall significantly short of the 4.5m forecast?