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javi741 on 10 May 2025
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javi741 said:

It's gonna be close, but based on this latest forecast from Nintendo and their recent quarter falling below my expectations, I'm leaning towards Switch falling just short of PS2 at around 158M. However, even a small boost could put it to 160M.

But 4.5M quarter would put the Switch at 156.6M by March 2026, and sales will only fall off a cliff after that with the Switch 2 out and software slowing for Switch 1.

For comparison the year where the DS sold 5M in a year, sales would drop to 2.48M for the next two fiscal years combined. If we were to put that same percentage on Switch's sales after their forecasted 4.5M year, they would sell only an additional 2.25M, adding up to sales hovering around 158.9M. So I think at its rate it'll fall short 

However, what could give the Switch 1 an advantage over the DS in terms of longevity is the fact that the Switch Lite is still under half the cost of the Switch 2, and the OG Switch is still 150$ less than Switch 2 which is a decent margin. By the time the 3DS got its price cut shortly after launch, the biggest price gap their was between DS and 3DS was 70$ where the DS Lite was 99$ vs 169$ for 3DS, a decent gap but not huge either, it was small enough to the point where people would rather spend 70$ more for a much newer and better DS.

A gap between Switch Lite and Switch 2 is a huge 250$, so that's still a big enough gap for people to just stick with getting a Switch Lite, especially for kids who don't have their own disposable income with parents who'd want to cheap out on getting the cheaper product. So that could mean the Switch 1 will have better legs.

At the same time tho, the Switch Lite never been a very high seller for Nintendo and easily the least appealing of the 3 versions of Switch, so it might not appeal well enough for the price gap to make a difference to outsell the PS2, we should see.