It's gonna be close, but based on this latest forecast from Nintendo and their recent quarter falling below my expectations, I'm leaning towards Switch falling just short of PS2 at around 158M. However, even a small boost could put it to 160M.
But 4.5M quarter would put the Switch at 156.6M by March 2026, and sales will only fall off a cliff after that with the Switch 2 out and software slowing for Switch 1.
For comparison the year where the DS sold 5M in a year, sales would drop to 2.48M for the next two fiscal years combined. If we were to put that same percentage on Switch's sales after their forecasted 4.5M year, they would sell only an additional 2.25M, adding up to sales hovering around 158.9M. So I think at its rate it'll fall short of PS2.
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