Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909
It’s not doing 40mil, it’s gonna be around | |||
| 30mil | 4 | 5.56% | |
| 32mil | 4 | 5.56% | |
| 34mil | 11 | 15.28% | |
| 36mil | 22 | 30.56% | |
| 38mil | 18 | 25.00% | |
| Under 29mil cuz I’m pessimistic | 1 | 1.39% | |
| 40mil because why the F not | 12 | 16.67% | |
| Total: | 72 | ||
Tbone's prediction is aging like fine wine. We're only -0.75mil behind his timeline and it's looking like Switch will blow past 1.2mil for 2025. We may approach 40mil TRACKED by Famitsu!
| Year | Tbone's predictions | YTD | Actuals | YTD | Difference |
| 2017-2020 | 17.34mil | 17.34mil | 17.34mil | n/a | |
| 2021 | 6.20mil | 23.54mil | 5.58mil | 22.92mil | -0.62mil |
| 2022 | 5.20mil | 28.74mil | 4.81mil | 27.72mil | -1.02mil |
| 2023 | 3.70mil | 32.44mil | 4.06mil | 31.79mil | -0.65mil |
| 2024 | 3.20mil | 35.64mil | ~3.10mil | 34.89mil | -0.75mil |
| 2025 | 1.20mil | 36.84 | |||
| 2026+ | 500k+ | 37.34 |
Playing Xenoblade 2 before I buy Xenoblade 3 (otherwise I couldn't wait to play 3).
Can they announce a new Fire Emblem? A remake of Genealogy or Tellius would suffice !

I voted 38 million in 2021
I think it will sell from 38 to 39 now
| IcaroRibeiro said: I voted 38 million in 2021 |
I was thinking 37M back then, seems like I lowballed a bit...
The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing
The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/
Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/
Seems like 37m is likely in the bag, with an upper limit at 38m.
It might be at 36m when Switch 2 launches (assuming a late Spring launch). But after that the Lite is probably pretty much the only thing that should be selling due to cost similarities between $300/$350 Switch and presumably $400 Switch 2. So sales will plummet. But it can probably still sell 1-2 million after that. Japan will likely be the dominant region for sales once the next gen system launches, as Japan has already been the only region that hasn't seems sales slump massively over the past two years (outside of that mid-2023 TotK-fueled respite). Still even in Japan its hard to imagine sales being much at all once a similarly priced and vastly more powerful system with backwards compatibility comes out priced barely above Switch's OLED model.
Bofferbrauer2 said:
I was thinking 37M back then, seems like I lowballed a bit... |
I voted 40 million and I'm sticking with that vote! I do think Famitsu will be a bit lower, but the prediction always took into account that Famitsu doesn't track certain sales in JP.
Playing Xenoblade 2 before I buy Xenoblade 3 (otherwise I couldn't wait to play 3).
Can they announce a new Fire Emblem? A remake of Genealogy or Tellius would suffice !
