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Forums - Sales Discussion - WTF BOLD Prediction! NSW To Ship Around 40mil Lifetime (Japan)


It’s not doing 40mil, it’s gonna be around

30mil 1 2.94%
32mil 3 8.82%
34mil 9 26.47%
36mil 10 29.41%
38mil 7 20.59%
Under 29mil cuz I’m pessimistic 1 2.94%
40mil because why the F not 3 8.82%

Hmm 40 million that is almost one for every three people in Japan. I think I'll go with the more "conservative" 34 million

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Long lifecycle and we are good to go.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

I have been predicting 36m for Japan. 40m is not totally out of the question, but it is definitely bold.

MHR soon, Good lineup coming and the rumored Pro revision for H2 coming. Babe

Now I see my prediction is the low bar.


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Bringing this up b4 we get numbers but so far so good. NSW might park in shipments with a good H1 which I’m aiming for 2.8mil or 3mil followed by a whopping 4mil-4.5mil in H2.

18.88mil: Y1-Y4 (3Y/10mon)

To add on from after seeing Q1 play out and now shortages and also knowing NSW pro is coming most likely Q3 (sept) as well as some strong 2022 releases, this is a quick thought for shipments only.

7.42mil: Y5 (26.3mil) > surpasses 3DS easily
5.20mil: Y6 (31.5mil) > normalizes with best Software year ever imo
3.80mil: Y7 (35.3mil) > Slows but still is high
3.20mil: Y8 (38.5mil) > Slight drop, Price cuts + Nintendo Selects
1.50mil: Y9/10 (40mil) > New Hardware releases but NSW sells last legs

Voted for 38 million and personally don't think it willl surpass much more than 36 

Numbers don't sum up enough to dare 40, the almost 10 million required  post-2022 is not happening unless nothing else comes from Nintendo in terms hardware until at least the end of 2025