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Forums - Sales - Which system will sell more in 2026: Switch 2 or PS5?

 

Which one will sell more?

PS5 16 20.51%
 
Switch 2 62 79.49%
 
Total:78
Kyuu 22 hours ago
Mnementh said:
Kyuu said:

GTA6's early sales should comfortably beat GTA5's on PS360, and most of it will come from PS5 as opposed to GTA5 being near evenly split between two consoles. 

Can you be more specific about what you mean by "magic things"? Is PS5 selling 120-130 million lifetime a magical number?

Well, we'll see this year (barred any more delays) how GTA affect PS5 sales.

And no, 120-130M is not magic, it will get there in the few years left. But if you assume a lifetime of 120-130M, then how do you see GTA6 reversing the normal decline of the platform (which is the thing I am referring to as magic), because if PS5 would do 20M this year for instance, it would shoot past that mark. I expect PS5 to have 15M this year (putting it at about 105M), then 10M in 2027 (bringing the total to 115) and then maybe 10M in the remaining time after, which brings it exactly into your area of expected lifetime sales. But that means PS5 is taking a normal trajectory of yearly decline as is usually the case for older consoles. If you assume GTA reverses direction of PS5 sales, then your lifetime expectation would be affected as well. But your lifetime expectations line up pretty well with yearly decline in sales and therefore GTA don't having an effect so massive that this changes.

And if we assume a normal decline to maybe 15M, then PS5 falls already behind Switch 2 sales in 2025, which wasn't even a full year for S2, so bringing the answer to the question of the thread to the Switch side. So you agree with me, that Switch 2 will probably beat PS5 this year, because your lifetime expectation for PS5 is certainly in line with this?

My latest prediction has the base PS5 selling 16.5 million this year and an eventual 132 million lifetime.

The PS4 didn't have a natural decline towards the end of its run, because production became limited abruptly (Sony initially intended a quick generational transition). And the PS5 won't have a natural decline either due to all of these price hikes which I expect we'll get another one of up to a $100 within a year or two, and there won't be deals as aggressive as last year's in Europe. So without GTA6, I'm of the opinion that PS5's annual decline would have been worse than PS4's "natural decline". The PS5 is super expensive at this stage compared to past consoles, and things could only get uglier.

If prices and deals somehow remain the same and it instead gets a pricecut sometime before PS6, sales would easily pass my 132 million prediction. But I think a price hike is certainly coming, so GTA6 would be needed to transition a part of the tens of millions who are stuck to the PS4, and sell a few more million comsoles to non PS gamers.



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BraLoD 20 hours ago

By the way, the God of War Trilogy Remake announcement was massive here as expected, already saw many people wishing for a PC release otherwise they'll have to get a PS5 (sadly most of those people would have PCs that would not be capable of running it regardless, if it's as high quality as a brand new game would be, tho).

If it was a product with a decently close release it would be nice to see its effect here in Brazil, people really love God of War around here, and even as it's definitely a small/medium market, I think it'll be really fun to see it.

As it is, I think it'll be hard to have much effect as I expect a post PS6 release for it, so I dunno if people will want to invest as much on a PS5 when it's already last gen or considering the PS6 might be a lot pricey it could still considerably boost PS5 here, meaning many late adopters skipping the PS6 down the road, tho.

I'm even seeing pages that constantly hate on Playstation completely hyped with the announcement, and it didn't even have footage, if a troll appears instead of riding on the hate as usual, they are shoting those down quickly, lol.

God of War and Resident Evil 4 were insane here because of the piracy, those PS2 games have such a strong online presence even as sales probably are nearly non existent in that era around here.



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CosmicSex 19 hours ago
Mnementh said:
CosmicSex said:

GTA 6 will not be a 'big' release.  It will be the biggest release of anything ever.

Its actually quite amazing how folks are able to convince themselves that the Mack Truck barreling towards them isn't real.  

As if the biggest game of all time would have to be 'magic'  to bump PS5 sales.  When in reality it would take actual magic for the game to not boost PS5.

The actually limit to PS5 2026 sales is Sonys ability to produce them.  

Peak year for PS5 had more than 21M sales. That is apparently an amount Sony can produce. So you are saying we should expect PS5 to sell 21M in 2026?

I am not sure that they actually can. Obviously if the demand was there they would want to but simply wanting to doesn't mean they can.  The worst case scenario would be where demand is so high it strips there RAM supply.  Sure they 'could' make more but if it triggers a price increase is it really worth it?