My latest prediction has the base PS5 selling 16.5 million this year and an eventual 132 million lifetime.

The PS4 didn't have a natural decline towards the end of its run, because production became limited abruptly (Sony initially intended a quick generational transition). And the PS5 won't have a natural decline either due to all of these price hikes which I expect we'll get another one of up to a $100 within a year or two, and there won't be deals as aggressive as last year's in Europe. So without GTA6, I'm of the opinion that PS5's annual decline would have been worse than PS4's "natural decline". The PS5 is super expensive at this stage compared to past consoles, and things could only get uglier.

If prices and deals somehow remain the same and it instead gets a pricecut sometime before PS6, sales would easily pass my 132 million prediction. But I think a price hike is certainly coming, so GTA6 would be needed to transition a part of the tens of millions who are stuck to the PS4, and sell a few more million comsoles to non PS gamers.

By the way, the God of War Trilogy Remake announcement was massive here as expected, already saw many people wishing for a PC release otherwise they'll have to get a PS5 (sadly most of those people would have PCs that would not be capable of running it regardless, if it's as high quality as a brand new game would be, tho).

If it was a product with a decently close release it would be nice to see its effect here in Brazil, people really love God of War around here, and even as it's definitely a small/medium market, I think it'll be really fun to see it.

As it is, I think it'll be hard to have much effect as I expect a post PS6 release for it, so I dunno if people will want to invest as much on a PS5 when it's already last gen or considering the PS6 might be a lot pricey it could still considerably boost PS5 here, meaning many late adopters skipping the PS6 down the road, tho.

I'm even seeing pages that constantly hate on Playstation completely hyped with the announcement, and it didn't even have footage, if a troll appears instead of riding on the hate as usual, they are shoting those down quickly, lol.

God of War and Resident Evil 4 were insane here because of the piracy, those PS2 games have such a strong online presence even as sales probably are nearly non existent in that era around here.

I am not sure that they actually can. Obviously if the demand was there they would want to but simply wanting to doesn't mean they can.  The worst case scenario would be where demand is so high it strips there RAM supply.  Sure they 'could' make more but if it triggers a price increase is it really worth it?  

January data is out:

• Switch 2: 765k
• PS5: 760k

They are neck in neck. The race is close.

Nintendo's advantage is that its easier to see Switch 2 get an uptick in sales in Europe and the US vs PS5 in Japan, which means as long as Switch 2 just get some software that is popular in Europe and the US it should easily win, because in Japan they will continue to outsell PS5 7 or 8 to 1 all year.

Switch 2 will need a massive lead to counter GTA VI boost. If things continue like this PS5 will win for sure.

Not really, they will sell like 5M consoles in Japan vs around 500k PS5 in Japan this year, so all they would need is just a bit uptick in sales in Europe and the US from Pokemon gen 10 and they win 2026 easily. January sales show how easy Nintendo will win it, comfortably outsold by PS5 in Europe and yet coming up on top due to Japan, and their current European sales are based on having little appealing software for the European market, when that changes they will still probably sell less than PS5 in Europe but more than currently, while PS5 has no ability to change its Japanese sales numbers.

GTA VI exclusive to PS5 in 2026... That's all I have to say.

Not only in 2026, but in 2027 as well. GTA's PC version delays got bigger over time. GTA 3, Vice city, San Andreas and even GTA IV all released on PC, 8 full months after the console version. GTA V released year and a half later. With the games getting more and more development time now, it's delay for the PC will be at the very best the same as GTA V, but I bet it will be even bigger, at least 2 years. Which means that if the game releases finally this year, it will be like exclusive game for the PS5 until at least end of 2028. Which is a lot. Yeah there will be Xbox version from the start, but Xbox is so missing these years, that the game will be just like exclusive to PS5.

Yes, all your points are true, I agree with absolutely everything. I just preferred to focus on 2026, the year the Thread is focusing on.