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Kyuu 1 day ago
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Mnementh said:
Kyuu said:

GTA6's early sales should comfortably beat GTA5's on PS360, and most of it will come from PS5 as opposed to GTA5 being near evenly split between two consoles. 

Can you be more specific about what you mean by "magic things"? Is PS5 selling 120-130 million lifetime a magical number?

Well, we'll see this year (barred any more delays) how GTA affect PS5 sales.

And no, 120-130M is not magic, it will get there in the few years left. But if you assume a lifetime of 120-130M, then how do you see GTA6 reversing the normal decline of the platform (which is the thing I am referring to as magic), because if PS5 would do 20M this year for instance, it would shoot past that mark. I expect PS5 to have 15M this year (putting it at about 105M), then 10M in 2027 (bringing the total to 115) and then maybe 10M in the remaining time after, which brings it exactly into your area of expected lifetime sales. But that means PS5 is taking a normal trajectory of yearly decline as is usually the case for older consoles. If you assume GTA reverses direction of PS5 sales, then your lifetime expectation would be affected as well. But your lifetime expectations line up pretty well with yearly decline in sales and therefore GTA don't having an effect so massive that this changes.

And if we assume a normal decline to maybe 15M, then PS5 falls already behind Switch 2 sales in 2025, which wasn't even a full year for S2, so bringing the answer to the question of the thread to the Switch side. So you agree with me, that Switch 2 will probably beat PS5 this year, because your lifetime expectation for PS5 is certainly in line with this?

My latest prediction has the base PS5 selling 16.5 million this year and an eventual 132 million lifetime.

The PS4 didn't have a natural decline towards the end of its run, because production became limited abruptly (Sony initially intended a quick generational transition). And the PS5 won't have a natural decline either due to all of these price hikes which I expect we'll get another one of up to a $100 within a year or two, and there won't be deals as aggressive as last year's in Europe. So without GTA6, I'm of the opinion that PS5's annual decline would have been worse than PS4's "natural decline". The PS5 is super expensive at this stage compared to past consoles, and things could only get uglier.

If prices and deals somehow remain the same and it instead gets a pricecut sometime before PS6, sales would easily pass my 132 million prediction. But I think a price hike is certainly coming, so GTA6 would be needed to transition a part of the tens of millions who are stuck to the PS4, and sell a few more million comsoles to non PS gamers.