"But thats not a predefined update schedule, right?"

No its a logical assumption based on what we know and isn't definitive at all we myself electing to imply that they would be 'enticed' rather than saying they will buy a PS5 for sure.

Your assumption (which I think is sound btw) implies that every GTA fan would do what we think they ought to do or should do.  It is very subjective.  Also, if your idea is that Black Friday deals should have been the motivation for upgrade... I sugguest that you might not have considered that GTA 6 launches a during 2026 Black Friday season, which really negates your argment.  Its not like the PS5 will never go on sale again lol. And if people are upgrading exclusively for GTA 6, it is reasonable to assume that some people will NOT upgrade until they can actually play GTA 6. 

"Now having to spell all this, I really wonder if some people are entering in this thread to give a solid debate or to hold on something..."

Thats exactly what I thought when I presented an argument based on the data we have instead of what I 'feel' consumers should do.

13 years without a new GTA and a lot of people keep saying that it won't have any impact on Hardware sales.

Yet you keep ignoring the scalating in prices due the RAM situation, like it didn't affect at all the buying habits in the meantime. But hey, I am positive that a lot of people will wait for the next BF to buy a PS5 for a 2024 full pricetag

Just to be clear, my tone is probably giving the wrong idea but I am in no way saying that GTA wont have any impact on PS5 sales. I am just opposing to the notion of astronomical sales that will pass a Nintendo hybrid system in its first full calendar year and possibly with a brand new 3d mario exclusive

Exactly! 13 years without a new GTA and people are thinking this huge crowd will patiently wait until the game is available to upgrade to the platform it will be running, specially after a huge announcement trailer 2 years ago and consoles raising their prices instead of cutting as time pass

It looks like by the end of March the Switch 2 will have sold a bit more than the Switch 1 had January-March 2018 while the PS5 will be a lot lower than what the PS4 sold that same period so the former has the advantage so far. Assuming there's a big holiday title the Switch 2's holiday season this year would likely crush the PS5's if not for GTA 6 but I doubt that'll be enough to fully make up the gap there. Basically the PS5 probably needs to have a lead heading into November to have a decent shot but it's unlikely it'll be leading by then since Pokopia will give the Switch 2 a lead heading into April.

So first, I want to say that I don't think anyone is predicting astronomical sales for the PS5.  I also don't think it the PS5 would have to do that well just to beat the Switch 2.  This is borne out by the fact that they are neck and neck thus far which makes this interesting in the first place.  Outside of any crazy GTA bundle, the PS5 is already doing just fine and could simply just sell more simply because thats what happens regardless of the existence of a Nintendo console.  

I think you are saying that if sales trend toward the Switch 2 by the end of the year, you don't think that GTA 6 will move the needle.  And obviously that is where the real disagreement lies. What is the actual power of GTA 6 and will it create a boost that can carry the PS5 over the finish line to first place for the year?   Does this accurately explain our disagreement?  I kinda like the senerio where its down to the wire and we have to start looking at the small details to figure out a win.  Then again, Nintendo or Sony could blow it all up by making some crazy sales prediction lol. 

About the Ram... yeah its definitely a concern, but simply based on what Sony said, I don't think that is a think that will effect prices (at least this year).  I fully expect the console to be $399 or less next come this Black Friday.  Until Sony makes a different statement, I think we can remove that as a reason you 'have' to buy now.

*The sound of a chior can be heard off in the distance and growing in intensity*

You're lack of faith in the power of GTA facinates me and I look forward to converting you to church of Two Taken.  You are to become our greatest of champions and people will fear you as a prophet of the word. (160rmf: "Wait what now?" 🤣🤣).  Let us go together! And let us remember not to take any of it too seriously!

I think its the other way around.  I think the Switch 2 (hopefully getting a boost from Pokemon) needs to estabish a lead now and grow it until November.  Maybe have something in October to mitige September's PS5 momentum.  Combine any lead they have with a nice holiday bundle/discount in November and find shelter when the GTA metor lands and they might be able to pull off a win.  The biggest issue IMO is going to be building a wall high enough that Sony can't breech via Europe.  If Sony has a lead going into Novmeber its over. 

For more context since the equivalent year for 2026 for the PS5 is 2019 for the PS4 it sold just over 4.9m November-December that year and the Switch sold just under 8m that period in 2018 so if the PS5 is behind heading into November it'll likely need to have a holiday season at least as good as 2023 to make up the difference. GTA 6 will make a difference for sure but matching that holiday season will be a tall order since that would be a few million extra consoles sold. It managing to be flat compared to its last holiday season would already be very impressive.

Really good points.  This is of course assuming Switch 2 can match Switch 1's 2018.  For the sake of keeping things interesting I'm gonna assume it lands in that ballpark.  This places the burden squarely on GTA's shoulders.  The fact that a PS5 victory may depend on the greatest entertainment release of all time and still may lose makes this the most interesting match up in quite some time.  Fully team GTA over here if course!

@CosmicSex and @Norion that's good comparison point. I added Switch 1 2018 vs PS4 2019 comparison monthly data in the first post, just so such comparisons be easier, and have faster access for the data.