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Norion 2 days ago
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CosmicSex said:
Norion said:

It looks like by the end of March the Switch 2 will have sold a bit more than the Switch 1 had January-March 2018 while the PS5 will be a lot lower than what the PS4 sold that same period so the former has the advantage so far. Assuming there's a big holiday title the Switch 2's holiday season this year would likely crush the PS5's if not for GTA 6 but I doubt that'll be enough to fully make up the gap there. Basically the PS5 probably needs to have a lead heading into November to have a decent shot but it's unlikely it'll be leading by then since Pokopia will give the Switch 2 a lead heading into April.

I think its the other way around.  I think the Switch 2 (hopefully getting a boost from Pokemon) needs to estabish a lead now and grow it until November.  Maybe have something in October to mitige September's PS5 momentum.  Combine any lead they have with a nice holiday bundle/discount in November and find shelter when the GTA metor lands and they might be able to pull off a win.  The biggest issue IMO is going to be building a wall high enough that Sony can't breech via Europe.  If Sony has a lead going into Novmeber its over. 

For more context since the equivalent year for 2026 for the PS5 is 2019 for the PS4 it sold just over 4.9m November-December that year and the Switch sold just under 8m that period in 2018 so if the PS5 is behind heading into November it'll likely need to have a holiday season at least as good as 2023 to make up the difference. GTA 6 will make a difference for sure but matching that holiday season will be a tall order since that would be a few million extra consoles sold. It managing to be flat compared to its last holiday season would already be very impressive.