Too hard to predict with no idea of what the software lineup is and all the political uncertainty and pricing uncertainty on the component side.

16.9M

Mario kart will be (once again) the DRIVER for (early) sales... 

It won't surpass 20m.
So much pressure from external factors.
It won't fall short by a lot though. 
Japan will do the heavy lifting, bet.

Like the PS5 thread bumping this now seems like good timing since while there is more uncertainty than for the PS5 it's still a lot less than it was a couple months ago. In particular all the details from Nate that were just shared gives a good picture of the rest of the year since it's likely true considering his track record. It seems there won't be a big holiday title so that's a blow and dampens my expectations but Pokopia being a big hit makes up for that some. I would've waited till the next Direct before bumping this one normally but it looks like we could very well be waiting till June for that.

The biggest factor fully up in the air now though is when Nintendo will do a price increase and by how much. There's good reason to believe it's not that soon but it could happen within the next couple months. Due to the seeming lack of a big holiday title my high end expectation has declined some and I expect it to fall into the 15-17m range depending on the price cut part. If there is a price increase soon it'll be tough for Nintendo to sell more than 15m this year I think.

Maybe you should've waited a few more days to see if a price increase will happen, cuz then the people will change their mind again, therefore the votes too. I think there will be price increase. I vote for 15M.

I think letting people decide on if they think a price increase happening for it soon is more likely than not like how you think it's more likely works enough.