Yes if Switch 2 were to accomplish this it'd basically be doubling the previous record for fastest selling console of all time.

Sell-Through first 7 months (VGChartz):

Worth noting that Switch and 3DS here don't include a holiday season because of the time they launched, if we extend for holiday season:

Switch first 10 months: 13.12m
3DS first 11 months: 12.55m

I fully expect Switch 2 can sell over the 8.96m of the PS5, especially with it having a separate launch and holiday sales boost in it's first 7 months and nd Nintendo seems to have been building up stock for quite some time, but the roughly 18m in sales it would probably need to outsell ps5 for the full calendar year is unthinkable.

It took the Switch 16 months to reach 18m sales (sell-through), Switch 2 isn't doing that in less than half the time.

Honestly I don't know why this is even a question. Let put that 7 months on the side for a while. Even if Switch 2 had a full 12 months in this year and launched on January 1st, the odds are against it of outselling the PS5 for the whole year, because going historically no console has sold more than 17M and since PS2 data is shipments that one is 18.6M but as we all know the shipments are at least 2M more in the strong periods of the good selling consoles, so PS2 sold units were no more than 16.6M that year - 2001. Here is a list of the 5 best first full calendar years of consoles:

1. PS2 - around 16.6M - 18.6M shipments (2001)
2. Wii - 16.5M (2007)
3. Switch - 16.3M (2018)
4. PS4 - 14.1M (2014)
5. 3DS - 13.4M (2012)

So from that we can make some points.

1. The Switch 2 chances of outselling the full year of PS5 in 2025 are almost non existing.
2. The Switch 2 chances of outselling it even in 2026 are not that great either going by the history. It's not impossible, but it's not very likely either. It really depends on when GTA VI is releasing (I personally am sure that it will be 2026) and there is a decent chance PS5 still do a 16-18M sales in 2026 with that GTA VI release. Switch 2 has to be the best performing console and beat or at least be on the same level as PS2, Wii and Switch, and to do at least 16M year or even more in order to have a chance of beating the PS5 in 2026, so this is not a given. I am saying that cuz some people in the thread act like it's a 100% certainty, when it's really 50/50 or even 60/40 for the PS5.

Just so we're all clear, I am referring to Calendar Year 2025 and not Fiscal Year 2025. I figured it would be a good question and tight race, considering how NS1 sold in 2017 (even though NS2 has less time, it has a lot of hype, potential FOMO with price increases and a brand new Mario Kart) and the fact that PS5 sold 20m last year, and will likely only see a slight decrease this year if GTA VI is still on track for 2025.

PS5 has been available all year and GTA VI is currently slated for this year.
I don't even know if Switch 2 will crack 10 million units in 2025, which PS5 will obviously clear.
I'm saying PS5.

@Wman1996 NS1 sold just under 15m by the end of 2017. 10m for NS2 in 2025 would be a pretty sharp drop. I would guess that NS2 would be able to least narrowly outsell in 2025 what NS1 did in 2017.

Again, I don't know where do you people get the data with 16 or 15M for 2017. It's so easy - hardware by date tool, and put the filter to yearly.

Here is every calendar year of the Switch:

• 2017 - 13.1M (Launch year)
• 2018 - 16.3M (First full calendar year)
• 2019 - 19.3M (Lite and Pokemon)
• 2020 - 28.5M (Animal Crossing and Covid)
• 2021 - 24M (OLED and Monster Hunter)
• 2022 - 19M (Pokemon)
• 2023 - 16.4M (Zelda TOTK)
• 2024 - 11.9M (Last major year for the Switch)

@Torpoleon is talking official shipment numbers, to which he's correct:

Honestly, without GTA6 this year I'd give the PS5 <17m and I think it would be much closer than some people think between it and Switch 2.

Switch shipped 14.86m by the end of 2017, it sold-through 13.1m.

If we are using shipments instead, which helps the switch 2 massively, it would still need to ship in 7 months what the Switch 1 took 13 months to do... At least. Even the extra couple of million from shipments instead of sell-through is highly unlikely to be enough.

Calendar year shipments:

In 2018, Switch shipments were 17.41M while PS4 shipments edged them out at 17.7M.

Yeah .. I talked about sales .. the thread is about sales. Shipments is other story.