So just like some of the previous threads, when the Switch was nearing the 100M mark and the PS1/Wii, the 117/118M mark of the PS4 and Game Boy, and just like the DS one, it's time to make the same about PS2. The gap that is discussed by many everywhere is between 155.1M and 161.9M. The last official report from Sony is from March 2012 with shipped more than 155M, but as we all know PS2 was shipped for another 9 months, and was probably on the store shelves for the entire of 2013 until all the available stock has been sold to consumers. We have Jim Ryan who said in a podcast that the number is 160M. So the remaining units left to sell for the Switch are anywhere between 11.6M to 18.4M. VGChartz has estimate the PS2 numbers at 158.7M, which I did as well here on the chart below since everything I do is taken from this site. For simplicity let's put the target of this poll at 160M for the Switch. The question is when do you think Switch will pass the PS2 and reach 160M ?

If Switch 2 screws the pooch, mid to late 2025.
Otherwise, Early Spring to Summer 2026.

It was known forever that PS2 sold about 156 million. Now in the last years its 160 million. Maybe next year its 165 million... Its never beating it.

Sales data stopped at 155 million before the system stopped being manufactured. Jim Ryan confirmed 160 million.

Sony announced that PS2 finished production by January 2013 and didn’t update sales figures officially, indicating that the number shipped beyond this point was insignificant (or less than a million). Otherwise, we’d have seen shipment numbers by Sony.

March 2010 it had shipped 146.8 million.
March 2011 it had shipped 153.2 million.
March 2012 it had shipped 155 million.

It’s unlikely it shipped more than 100-500K given the heavy decline in sales in FY 2012 (selling about 30% year over year). Another 5 million is absurd. If they suddenly saw a massive surge in sales into the next fiscal year, they wouldn’t have cancelled it. They cancelled it because it stopped selling and they likely no longer produced any long before the announcement.

There was some ex-Sony guy who said 160m. That’s where the number comes from. But Sony said 155 million, not 160. So confirmation bias resulting in the “160m” number being repeated without any scrutiny. Now more than ever, because certain fans don’t want to see Switch surpass PS2.

I have been cheering for Switch to beat PS2

160 million sold-through? Probably 2027

I personally scrutinize the idea that Sony sold over 160M PS2 consoles. The last shipped number was 155M in 2012, and they stopped manufacturing in 2013. It doesn't make sense to me for Sony to manufacture and distribute 5M+ extra PS2 consoles when they only shipped about 2M PS2's between 2011 and 2012.

Instead, I could see maybe 3M-4M additional units, 2M per fiscal year. In addition, Jim Ryans statement of 160M sold very much sounds like an unofficial number and could easily be a rounded number based on how close it was. 158M-159M is IMO close enough to 1) be a reasonable amount above what Sony last reported based on the shipping trends leading into 2012 and 2) close enough to 160 for Jim Ryan to adhere to that number through rounding. Especially if it's, say, 159.5M.

161M, as suggested for the upper limit, just seems too suspicious. I just couldn't see Sony deciding to manufacture 2M more units FY 2013 and then another 4M before they cut manufacturing.

Depends on how many units PS2 sold.

If we assume 155mil? NSW will likely be ahead Fall 2025. I expect NSW to be around 152.5mil by end of F’25, knowing that NSW2 won’t be reveal until early 2025 and won’t be released until Summer 2025 at earliest. Should allow for NSW to pull ~3mil combined during Q1&2F25.

If we assume 157-158mil? Holiday 2025. I feel confident in saying NSW sales will remain strong (2-3mil Q3F25) Holiday 2025. NSW2 will expensive and scarce, whereas NSW will be affordable and relevant w/ the latest Pokémon being an exclusive (not coming to NSW2).

If we assume 160mil? Fall 2026. I’d expect maybe 0.75-1.25mil/quarter during first half of calendar year 2026. (Tho this is nearly two years away…hard to say what will even happen to NSW.)

If we assume 163mil? Holiday 2027. Shoot for the moon with 165mil? If it hasn’t happened by Holiday 2027, I don’t think it’ll ever happen.

Nintendo's forecast is 153.8M by the end of March '25 with 12.5M units shipped within the current fiscal year. In a worst case scenario sales drop ~50% when the successor will be announced. This would result in ~6M units shipped during fiscal year '25/'26.

So I think it's likely during summer 2026 that Switch surpasses 160M units shipped. Until the end of 2026 there should be 160M units sold to customers.

Switch outperformed any of my worst case predictions, though :D