I severely regret bumping this thread to make tha one comment on Rol… this conversation on the final PS2 is getting nowhere.

Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't shipments decided by the sales ? Therefore it's impossible to over ship by much, since the stores simply won't take much more inventory then what they are selling right ? Therefore it's impossible. That is what I am saying. It's not Nintendo's decision if they want to overship or not, it's market's decision. If there isn't enough demand for the Switch, stores won't accept more shipments than what they sell (at that point it would be almost the same between sold and shipped). You wrote it in a way like it's Nintendo's decision, like if they wanted they could just overship by too much for a few years. And my point is they can't, because the stores would not want more units if the demand is low, therefore Nintendo can't just decide to ship 160M or 161M if the market doesn't want to buy so many, even if the stores are selling them until 2030. That was my original point and answer. It all depends on the market itself, and the demand. Of course if there is enough demand they can get there eventually. But it's not set in stone, that selling until 2030 will guarantee 160M.

Again, this is the sentence. For this to happen, there should be a certain demand for the Switch, so even if nintendo keep shipping low amount for the next few years, even this may not be enough, to barely crawl, because it depends if Switch is selling 10 or 20k per month for that last 3 years, or if Switch is selling 60-70k per month. In order for it to crawl around 2 to 2.5M more for those last three years, it needs to sell around 60-70k monthly on average for Nintendo to be able to ship enough, and the stores to want that much amount, so they can sell it and reach the goal. If it sells less than that, it won't do it. (again talking example numbers here just for the point, I don't know how much it will be at that point, but shipments until march 2027 of 157.5M or 158M seems reasonable to me, that's why I use 2M or 2.5M as left amount to sell/ship and therefore 60-70k average monhtly).

I write this, not just to your post and you here, but to everyone, since I've seen other people who posted the same thing like it's guaranteed that if they continue if will. The level of sales here is the key however. If you sell 1M per year for 10 years you do 10M. But if you sell 200k per year for 10 years, you do 2M. The fact that you do something for many years is not enough. The pace and the way you do it matters.

I don't know much about how that sort of thing works but shipping just an extra couple million units of something that's sold over 150m seems to me like something that could be done if the company really wanted it to happen. It'd be a dumb business decision but it doesn't feel like it'd be outright impossible since from a global perspective a couple million is a small amount.

I just added some more text to my previous post in edit.

If you speak for a period of few years when it's getting replaced for example I agree. But when the system is selling like 500k a year or less (Switch may be at that level in 2027) it seems a little too much, to produce and ship 3M more, when you know that a 500k year almost surely means the next year will be at least 50% drop if not more (usually the last 2-3 years of a consoles have such a trend). So if they sell 2M in 2026 and 500k in 2027, and it's normal following the trend to sell like 100-200k in 2028, shipping and producing like 3 or 2.5M more doesn't seem very logical (Even excluding the fact the stores will simply not take that much inventory when the demand will be many times less).

Yeah it's for sure not logical so I don't view it as a serious possibility. I was basically making a point to show that at this point Nintendo would suddenly have to act very uncharacteristic for it to still make it to 160m.

Yea, but it's actions can be price cut, not really over shipping, since that is decided by the market. And also keeping it on the market for longer of course, but that don't necessarily guarantee 160M. I would say it's not possibility at all. It can ship those units only if needed, if the demand is there.

I hope it can pass 160