The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Norion said:

Right that's why I said it's extremely unlikely cause overshipping the Switch 1 like that to break a record that would have no real impact on their business so would be incredibly strange since Furukawa has shown good business sense thus far. The only way it could feasibly happen really is if it would get very close under normal circumstances so they decide to give it an extra push to make it but it's not looking like it's gonna get that close.

Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't shipments decided by the sales ? Therefore it's impossible to over ship by much, since the stores simply won't take much more inventory then what they are selling right ? Therefore it's impossible. That is what I am saying. It's not Nintendo's decision if they want to overship or not, it's market's decision. If there isn't enough demand for the Switch, stores won't accept more shipments than what they sell (at that point it would be almost the same between sold and shipped). You wrote it in a way like it's Nintendo's decision, like if they wanted they could just overship by too much for a few years. And my point is they can't, because the stores would not want more units if the demand is low, therefore Nintendo can't just decide to ship 160M or 161M if the market doesn't want to buy so many, even if the stores are selling them until 2030. That was my original point and answer. It all depends on the market itself, and the demand. Of course if there is enough demand they can get there eventually. But it's not set in stone, that selling until 2030 will guarantee 160M.

Norion said:

At this point I think the only way it beats the PS2 is if Nintendo fully commits to manufacturing enough to beat the record regardless of how low demand gets so they keep shipping low amounts for the next few years to make it barely crawl there eventually. I view that scenario as extremely unlikely.

Again, this is the sentence. For this to happen, there should be a certain demand for the Switch, so even if nintendo keep shipping low amount for the next few years, even this may not be enough, to barely crawl, because it depends if Switch is selling 10 or 20k per month for that last 3 years, or if Switch is selling 60-70k per month. In order for it to crawl around 2 to 2.5M more for those last three years, it needs to sell around 60-70k monthly on average for Nintendo to be able to ship enough, and the stores to want that much amount, so they can sell it and reach the goal. If it sells less than that, it won't do it. (again talking example numbers here just for the point, I don't know how much it will be at that point, but shipments until march 2027 of 157.5M or 158M seems reasonable to me, that's why I use 2M or 2.5M as left amount to sell/ship and therefore 60-70k average monhtly).

I write this, not just to your post and you here, but to everyone, since I've seen other people who posted the same thing like it's guaranteed that if they continue if will. The level of sales here is the key however. If you sell 1M per year for 10 years you do 10M. But if you sell 200k per year for 10 years, you do 2M. The fact that you do something for many years is not enough. The pace and the way you do it matters.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 1 day ago