Nintendo will probably stop production next year. It will not beat PS2. Probably somewhere between 157 and 159 in the end.

The DS and 3DS took about three years to be fully phased out after their "successor" launched, so we’ll probably have support and production for the Switch until around 2027 at the earliest. If the Switch Lite keeps selling well and Nintendo squeezes every last drop out of it, that window could easily stretch into 2028 or even beyond.

157m is definitely too low. Nintendos forecast up to March will have the Switch at 156m. Japan on it's own is looking like it'll hit around 1 million for the year. So that's 157m without factoring in any sales for the rest of the world or even sales beyond 2026. 

The biggest indicator for where the Switch will end up will probably come from Nintendos end of year report. When they give their guidance for Switch shipments for the following year. 

How is Japan looking like it will hit 1M exactly? While I am not excluding the possibility of that, having just 3 weeks and saying "it's looking like" is absurd.

DS had way stronger weeks in the beginning of 2012, and even with that it finished at merely 600k in the end. Switch might even end at 500k or 600k, we don't know nothing yet. It was starting it's 2025 with weeks of around 50k, and by the end of the year it hit weeks like 11-12-13k. And that was half a year only for itself mind you. Again I am not saying it's impossible, but it's very far from sure or certain, to say " it's looking like ". 

Other than that, yea 157M might be little low in the end, if Nintendo is planning on to sell the Switch after the next fiscal year. Because if they don't then 157M might be indeed what it finishes at, or barely above it. Since it will be at 156M with the end of this FY and given the drops it does, 1M for the next FY is reasonable, although I personally think it will do little better than that. They discontinued the DS after having a year of 1M in sales, just to remind you. In the case they let it sell for another 2 years after that, I can see 1M more squeezed out of it.

Based on this latest report, I doubt the Switch will reach 160M now. For it to have a chance I was expecting closer to a 2M holiday quarter to put Switch at 156M by end of 2025, but only sold 1.3M in a holiday quarter.

If a holiday quarter was barely able to exceed 1M, I find it near impossible that we'll ever see a 1M+ non-holiday quarter again, and I think there's a good chance we'll wont even see another holiday quarter for Switch 1 exceed 1M again as momentum will quickly slow by holiday 2026.

I find it very difficult for the Switch 1 to squeeze out another 4.6 Million to reach 160M under these conditions. The Switch 1 is barely less expensive than the already backwards compatible Switch 2, the Switch 2 also having such a great start wont help either cause it'll only incentivise Nintendo to drop the Switch 1 sooner knowing Switch 2 is a guaranteed success. Based on these factors we very well could see Switch 1 production end as early as 2027, so it'll have only maybe another 2 year window to reach another 4.6, but sales will exponentially drop lower from here so I doubt it'll be enough to reach 160M.

Only potential saving grace would be the Switch Lite existence still being the budget Switch option for both platforms which I think will help the Switch 1 have a bit more legs, but the Switch Lite already wasn't a very popular device anyways relative to the more appealing Switch models so I don't think it'll be enough.

So they maintain their forecast for March 26, so they expect the Switch to be in the 4M of the 160. I do believe they can do it, but we'll have a better idea once we know what they forecast for FY27, which I doubt would be the final year of production.

Here's my thought and it comes from my retailer and buyer experience for retail chain ( long post):

-What is interesting to look at is not the % drop from one year to another, but from quarter to quarter. And since the SW2 launch, the Switch had two steady quarters in the 900k and one 1M+ in the holidays. Will it maintain that number? Probably not, but it shows some kind of stability and the Japanese weekly numbers are a good place to see this trend.

-From a retailer perspective, it shows that the product, while not as popular, is still selling at a steady pace and in a range that it's worth keeping in stock.

-From a buyer perspective, you have to consider the margin your making on what you're buying from the producer or distributor. An order is normally made of available units and units in production or to be produced. Nintendo could easily decide to produced 4M unit if they want, but that's a risk they can't take unless they have firm orders from a retailer, but orders work the same way as if you're buying in wholesale: the more you're willing to buy, the more you can negotiate the price to your advantage.

-Buyers in retails have to look at multiple factors before signing an order and it's always the same: how much will it cost, how much units can I stored in our distribution centers, how much inventory can we hold in our sales point and how much will it cost to replenish our point of sales.

This is were the Switch shines, just like the DS and 3DS: it's size and it's packaging.

The storage space it takes is way smaller than other consoles and by default, can be shipped in bigger figures for the same weight (which is how shipping cost or calculated). The Switch Lite in particular takes really little space in a warehouse or in the back-store of a GameStop or a Best Buy. 10 units of it could fit on a shelve, while you could only store one PS5 on it instead. Having 10 units in stock at all time on a square foot space in a back-store is something that are acceptable from a buyer perspective because of the little impact it has on the storage capacity of your stores (or even distribution center), even if said store is just selling one unit a week. It makes buying in bulk less expensive and less risky. If it was the early days of the Switch, they would have to be more prudent, but at this point in time, it's more about margins then potential sales.

It was definitely a factor for us with the PS2 Slim or why we held into ordering the Wii Mini at the end. It's cost effective, even if you sell the minimum of units on a weekly basis.

So my guess, with that in mind: the next FY forecast will be down around 2-2.5M and FY28 will be around 1.5-2M with the Oled being discontinued to keep only the Switch Lite available till the ends of production, which I guess will happens once they don't expect yearly orders to reach 1M unit or when they want to introduced the Switch 2 Lite.

But we'll see.

The obvious reason is that demand for the console has collapsed so they'd be overshipping it by an insane amount to get a record they clearly don't care that much about.

What do you guys think of the scenario of the Switch 2 raising its price some time during this year? Can it help the Switch 1 or not? If the Switch 2's price goes up, people may be too relunctant to buy it and choose a cheaper option like the Switch 1. But what if Nintendo sees this as the Switch 1 getting in the way of the Switch 2 and decides to kill it to force people to choose the Switch 2 instead? Or would they rather keep the Switch 1 on the market to retain consumers to the brand, even if not in the console Nintendo would want they to buy?

Well, that would be a disaster for consumers.  Also, didn't Nintendo just recent raise the price of the original Switch?  Why not just LOWER the price of the original Switch?  Wouldn't that have a similar effect?

I've come to learn that consumers of today are very price flexible when it comes video game hardware and software— observe how PS5 continues to sell very well six year into its life despite being hit with a collection of price hikes. Only recent exception I can think of would be PS5 in JP back in August 2024... but even then, upon lowering the price significantly last December, sales didn't budge much at all. And NS1's NA price hike back in August 2025 saw next-to-no impact whatsoever on Switch 1 sales; and have we forgotten that NS1 managed to pull off 155mil despite not receiving a single price cut?

That said, I think the only way Switch 1 gains momentum is through either a highly economical SKU with very little comprise compared to the base model (e.g. TV only Switch 1 for $175USD; Switch Lite Plus that can be played on a TV but comes without a dock nor detachable Joy Cons for $150USD; etc.), releasing hotly anticipated software that cannot be played on NS2 alongside Special Edition Switch 1 systems (this would only happen if Nintendo reaaally wanted to prioritize hitting that 160mil figure for NS1), or...something else, I'm sure.