Based on this latest report, I doubt the Switch will reach 160M now. For it to have a chance I was expecting closer to a 2M holiday quarter to put Switch at 156M by end of 2025, but only sold 1.3M in a holiday quarter.
If a holiday quarter was barely able to exceed 1M, I find it near impossible that we'll ever see a 1M+ non-holiday quarter again, and I think there's a good chance we'll wont even see another holiday quarter for Switch 1 exceed 1M again as momentum will quickly slow by holiday 2026.
I find it very difficult for the Switch 1 to squeeze out another 4.6 Million to reach 160M under these conditions. The Switch 1 is barely less expensive than the already backwards compatible Switch 2, the Switch 2 also having such a great start wont help either cause it'll only incentivise Nintendo to drop the Switch 1 sooner knowing Switch 2 is a guaranteed success. Based on these factors we very well could see Switch 1 production end as early as 2027, so it'll have only maybe another 2 year window to reach another 4.6, but sales will exponentially drop lower from here so I doubt it'll be enough to reach 160M.
Only potential saving grace would be the Switch Lite existence still being the budget Switch option for both platforms which I think will help the Switch 1 have a bit more legs, but the Switch Lite already wasn't a very popular device anyways relative to the more appealing Switch models so I don't think it'll be enough.
Existing User Log In
New User Registration
Register for a free account to gain full access to the VGChartz Network and join our thriving community.
