The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

[XtremeBG]

FlashmanHarry said:

157m is definitely too low. Nintendos forecast up to March will have the Switch at 156m. Japan on it's own is looking like it'll hit around 1 million for the year. So that's 157m without factoring in any sales for the rest of the world or even sales beyond 2026. 

The biggest indicator for where the Switch will end up will probably come from Nintendos end of year report. When they give their guidance for Switch shipments for the following year. 

How is Japan looking like it will hit 1M exactly? While I am not excluding the possibility of that, having just 3 weeks and saying "it's looking like" is absurd.

DS had way stronger weeks in the beginning of 2012, and even with that it finished at merely 600k in the end. Switch might even end at 500k or 600k, we don't know nothing yet. It was starting it's 2025 with weeks of around 50k, and by the end of the year it hit weeks like 11-12-13k. And that was half a year only for itself mind you. Again I am not saying it's impossible, but it's very far from sure or certain, to say " it's looking like ". 

Other than that, yea 157M might be little low in the end, if Nintendo is planning on to sell the Switch after the next fiscal year. Because if they don't then 157M might be indeed what it finishes at, or barely above it. Since it will be at 156M with the end of this FY and given the drops it does, 1M for the next FY is reasonable, although I personally think it will do little better than that. They discontinued the DS after having a year of 1M in sales, just to remind you. In the case they let it sell for another 2 years after that, I can see 1M more squeezed out of it.