August 2025 Circana (NPD) covers the four-week period from August 2 to 29 and will be released on October 8 around 6:00 am PT / 9:00 am ET / 2:00 pm UK.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000
4. [#4 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz US estimates for August 2025:

1. NS2 - 309K
2. PS5 - 171K
3. NS - 75K
4. XS - 49K

VGChartz US estimates for July 2026:

1. NS2 - 227K
2. PS5 - 168K
3. XS - 53K
4. NS - 30K

Possible impact on hardware sales:

• XS - $100 to $150 price hike on August 1
• NS2 - $50 price hike on September 1 (People buying before increase)
• PS5+XS - GTA6 pre-orders / gameplay reveal

Upcoming release dates for Circana reports:

• August - Oct 8
• September - Oct 22
• October - Nov 19
• November - Dec 17
• December - Jan 21, 2027

US sales data from Circana's Mat Piscatella for last week of August:

In the US, combined PS5/XBS hardware unit sales for the week ending Aug 29 increased 14% versus the prior week. PS5 grew 17%, XBS 9%. The combined increase across both platforms amounted to less than 8k units. Source: Circana Retail Tracking Service.

Post by @matpiscatella.bsky.social — Bluesky

• NS2 - 250K
• PS5 - 200K
• XS - 40K
• NS - 30K

NS2 - 248K
PS5 - 170K
XS - 41K
NS - 22K

So odd we are gonna get to reports 2 weeks apart in October

Mat Piscatella from Circana said they are upgraded stuff.

"Service upgrade. Enhancements to accessories reporting, new platform and generation classifications, and new reporting for emerging game distribution formats including code in box and game key cards. Doing that and applying it to 31 years of history takes a lot of fingers and toes to count."

Post by @matpiscatella.bsky.social — Bluesky

Safe to say that over 7k if not 7.5k of these GTA boosted sales are from PS5. We can actually extrapolate the previous week from that,

If 17% represents a 7k increase, the previous week saw PS5 selling 41k~ (vs 48k~)
If 9% represents a 1k increase, the previous week saw Xbox selling 11k~ (vs 12k~)

I'm gonna guess:

Switch 2: 270k
PS5: 190k
Xbox: 35k

Updated guess:

PS5: 175k

Xbox: 45k

I ran the math given the % changes Mat gave and Xbox performed much better than that. Your PS5 is close. Main thing to keep note is combined they are up 14% week-on-week (13.5%-14.4% with Mat rounding). PS5 is up 17% and XS is up 9% WoW.

Week ending August 22:

• PS5 is 36.7K-38K 
• XS is 16.8K-18.4K

Week ending August 29:

• PS5 is 42.9K-44.5K
• XS is 18.3K-20.1K

This gives combined PS5 and XS sales up 14.4% WoW. XS sales being lower than what I have brings the combined sales to 14.5% or higher as PS5 is up more than the average between the 2.

From what I've seen XS was supply constrained in July and in the first 2 weeks of August. Before there was new stock that caused a bump the last 2 weeks of the month. So XS sales the first 2 weeks are likely 8K-15K combined. But we shall see what the Circana report has as they get hardware data from like 99% of the market.

For those wondering with the limited data we do have and what Mat gave us puts rough estimates around:

• PS5 - 140K-170K
• XS - 43K-55K

This is just very rough preliminary estimates. Which is why we always wait for the Circana report so the initial estimates we do post for the Americas are more accurate. We don't have enough data for NS2 or NS1 to give any rough estimates.

PS5 - 140K-170K

XS - 43K-55K

170K seems like the low end for PS5 and 43k for XS seems like the high end for Xbox.

140k for PS5 would be a 20% YOY drop

43k for Xbox would be less than 10% drop.

I'm guessing something like this:

NS2 - 255K
PS5 - 180K
XS - 38K
NS - 24K